- Combat northeast of Pokrovsk is chaos
- Small groups of infantry constantly try to outflank each other
- The Russians have a manpower advantage
The fighting northeast of Pokrovsk is so chaotic that troops from both sides are in constant danger of being surrounded and cut off by the enemy. That chaos is making some Ukrainian forces cautious—and giving the Russians a chance to consolidate their positions inside the 40 sq km pocket around the village of Kucheriv Yar.
That, in turn, allows the Russians to continue threatening the supply lines into Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, themselves the last lines of defense between Russian field armies in Donetsk Oblast and the main free urban conglomerate stretching from Kramatorsk to Sloviansk in western Donetsk.
Russian convoy destroyed but reinforcements keep coming
On or before Monday, Ukrainian forces—possibly from the 225th Assault Regiment—spotted a Russian artillery convoy trying to slip past Ukrainian surveillance near the village of Pankivka and enter the Kucheriv Yar salient.
The Ukrainians blasted the convoy, destroying several vehicles and an aging but still potent M46 howitzer. But other Russian reinforcements are marching into the salient, which developed in early August after the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade slipped past undermanned Ukrainian trenches northeast of Pokrovsk.
The Russians originally aimed to capture the village of Dobropillia, which sits astride a key supply line 15 km north of Pokrovsk—but they never quite got there. A strong Ukrainian counterattack led by the 1st Azov Corps pushed the Russians back to Kucheriv Yar.
Battered but not defeated, the Russian 51st Combined Arms Army isn’t giving up. The Kremlin has rushed five marine regiments and brigades to the 51st CAA’s positions at the base of the salient in order to sustain the field army’s effort to close a pincer around Pokrovsk.
Why this chaotic pocket threatens Ukraine’s eastern defense line
The battlefield control map from the Ukrainian Deep State initiative indicates Russians are cut off at the top of the salient around Kucheriv Yar. But as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds through its 43rd month and the infantry spread out to avoid the tiny drones that are everywhere all the time, zones of control are rarely that clear.
Some Russians are getting through to Kucheriv Yar. “The enemy managed not only to hold its positions in the Kucheriv Yar area and north of it, but also to create a relatively stable logistics corridor to it,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies observed.
Key tactical developments:
- Russians control 40 sq km pocket around Kucheriv Yar village
- Five Russian marine units rushed to sustain offensive operations
- Ukrainian 225th Assault Regiment destroyed Russian artillery convoy near Pankivka
- Fighting threatens supply lines to Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka
Constant flanking creates dangerous exposure for Ukrainian units
The fighting is chaotic and Russian and Ukrainian troops attack and counterattack, constantly trying to outflank and surround each other.
Every attack exposes the attacker’s flanks to counterattack. At the same time, every counterattack exposes the counterattacker’s flanks to countercounterattack.
The outnumbered Ukrainians are at a disadvantage.
The outlook for Ukrainian forces between Pankivka and Kucheriv Yar is “unfavorable,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported. The Ukrainian units that have wedged themselves into the Russian 51st CAA’s positions are at risk of being cut off by counterattacks, CDS explained.
According to CDS, the risk has forced the Ukrainians to abandon an effort to capture the village of Novotoretske at the base of the salient and cut off all the Russians to the north.
Broader strategic implications for eastern Ukraine
The ongoing chaotic fight in the Kucheriv Yar pocket isn’t helping the wider Ukrainian effort to defend Pokrovsk and nearby Kostiantynivka—and, by extension, protect Kramatorsk to Sloviansk. This matters globally because these cities anchor Ukraine’s industrial heartland and represent the last major defensive line before Russia could claim control over the entire Donetsk region.
The original Russian breakthrough toward Dobropillia, which has contracted to the current fight around Kucheriv Yar, “has an operational impact on the situation in two neighboring directions—Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka,” CDS noted.
If the Russians can gain full control of the pocket, they could attack east (toward Kostiantynivka) or west (toward Pokrovsk) from these new positions.
Sensing an opportunity, the Russian Center Grouping of Forces “attempts to develop this operational success,” CDS reported, “while Ukrainian Defense Forces try to limit it and prevent the enemy from exploiting this wedge.”
