Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on 6 October claimed that the United Kingdom is preparing a staged attack involving pro‑Ukrainian Russians in a European port — part of what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) identifies as part of Russia’s ongoing “Phase 0” operations to prepare for a possible future war with NATO.

SVR alleges UK preparing ship sabotage using pro-Ukrainian Russians

On 6 October, the SVR accused the UK of organizing a covert operation in which a group of pro‑Ukrainian Russians, currently fighting for Ukraine, would carry out a strike on either a Ukrainian Navy vessel or a foreign civilian ship docked in a European port. The SVR claimed the UK would supply Chinese-made underwater gear to blame the PRC for supporting Russia’s aggression.

The SVR also claimed that the UK plans to supply the group with Chinese‑manufactured underwater equipment, in an apparent effort — according to Russia — to create the perception that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is assisting Russia’s war effort.

ISW places this claim in a growing series of similar statements from the SVR targeting European states, including Poland, Moldova, and Serbia. The recent frequency of these allegations suggests a shift toward a coordinated campaign of psychological operations.

Russia escalates sabotage, electronic warfare and covert operations across NATO

The ISW assesses that Russia has entered a broader “Phase 0” — defined as the physical and psychological condition-setting stage for potential future escalations. Russia has intensified a mix of overt and covert attacks across NATO countries in recent years, and notably so in Fall 2025. These include sabotage missions, electronic warfare activities, GPS jamming, arson, and a spike in drone incursions into NATO airspace.

" ISW has not observed indicators that Russia is actively preparing for an imminent conflict with NATO at this time," the think tank wrote.

However, ISW observes that the pattern of hybrid attacks points to early-stage planning for contingencies involving a higher level of warfare.

Kremlin aims to instill fear and shift European policy

According to ISW, these actions — both informational and operational — serve multiple Russian objectives. Internationally, Russia aims to instill fear among European populations by fostering the perception that the threat of violence is widespread and unpredictable. The ISW says Moscow seeks to fracture NATO cohesion by pressuring European governments to reduce support for Ukraine or to pause military reinforcement efforts out of fear of Russian retaliation.

Domestically, the SVR’s false flag claims are also aimed at Russian audiences. The ISW notes that these narratives attempt to frame the West as the instigator of threats and attacks, helping the Kremlin prepare public opinion for any potential future escalation against NATO.

In parallel with its information operations, Russia has undertaken long-term structural moves, such as rebuilding its western military districts and expanding military infrastructure along the border with Finland. 

"The Kremlin is setting conditions to justify and rally public support for any possible future Russian aggression against NATO," ISW concluded.