The escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan is deterred by the nuclear arsenals of both countries, according to Polish military expert General Roman Półko. In a comment for Polish Radio 24, he compared the current situation to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
“If you look at the potential of India and Pakistan, it is incomparable. I would even say that India is like Russia in relation to Ukraine. Only Ukraine, that is, Pakistan, has nuclear warheads. Russia probably would not have attacked Ukraine if it had this nuclear potential,” says Półko.
According to him, it is Pakistan’s possession of about 150 nuclear warheads that prevents India from larger-scale aggression.
“This balances what India has, and the fact that India has an eight times larger budget, three times larger army, and an advantage, in this situation, does not matter,” explains the general.
Tension between the two nuclear states increased after the terrorist attack on 22 April in Indian-controlled Kashmir, where terrorists shot 26 Indian tourists. In response, Indian armed forces carried out a nighttime operation on Pakistani territory, calling it a “strike on terrorist infrastructure.” The Pakistani army reported 26 deaths, including women and children, and dozens of injuries.
Islamabad denies New Delhi’s accusations of supporting terrorists, but has simultaneously declared its readiness to respond to the strike. Pakistan has also appealed to the international community to regard India’s actions as a provocation.
General Półko emphasizes that the India-Pakistan conflict has two main causes: the struggle for Kashmir, whose Indian part seeks either to join Pakistan or gain independence, and Islamabad’s support for terrorist groups.
“This conflict has been ongoing for decades and flares up from time to time. I assess it the same way now. This is not a full-scale aggression. India is showing that it will not tolerate acts of terrorism from Pakistan but does not want to escalate this into a large war,” he notes.
In the expert’s view, the main deterrent factor is nuclear weapons, which both states possess.