North Korea provides 50% of Russia’s ammunition needs in its war against Ukraine, Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said at the Ukraine Year 2025 forum on 23 February.

Budanov addressed ongoing concerns regarding Russia’s production rates and volumes, stating that for major weapons systems, output remains at last year’s levels or has slightly decreased. However, when it comes to ammunition, particularly glide bombs and drones, Russia is “significantly increasing production” and making substantial progress in expanding its output.

According to Ukrinform, Budanov said:

“In this aspect, one cannot but mention their, what we can now call, strategic ally North Korea, which meets all, let’s say, the front’s ammunition needs by 50%. 50% of the ammunition is Korean ammunition.“

The intelligence chief also reiterated that North Korea has begun large-scale deliveries of 170 mm Koksan self-propelled howitzers and 240 mm multiple rocket launcher systems to Russia.

Ukraine destroys first North Korean-supplied Koksan howitzer – 199 to go (video)

“Everyone already knows the fact that [North] Korean military personnel are being used in [Russia’s] Kursk Oblast, but it is a fact. Korea is taking an active part in the war against us, in supporting the Russian Federation,” the intelligence chief added.

Russian force generation

Budanov stated that Russia has reduced its recruitment target for new military personnel by nearly 100,000 this year. While this cut is official, he noted that its actual execution remains uncertain, as Russia continues to pursue its strategic goals. However, he emphasized that Moscow is facing major difficulties, increasingly resorting to terrorist tactics, particularly missile and drone strikes.

The intelligence chief did not specify Russia’s goals, but multiple analysts have repeatedly noted – citing statements from Russian officials – that they include bringing Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of influence, subjugating it as a state, and dismantling its independence.

“There are [Russian frontline] advancements, but the pace is far from what they originally aimed for. They have problems, and so do we, but there’s no need to fall into despair over it. Everything remains more or less under control,” Budanov said.

Full-scale invasion

Approaching the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion and the eleventh year of war between Ukraine and Russia, he noted a significant shift in Moscow’s thinking:

“For the first time, nearly three years in, Russia’s top leadership has realized what a terrible mistake they made in 2022,” he said, explaining that they now acknowledge relying on “completely false data.“

This, he claimed, was a “total failure” of Russian intelligence services, which had based their assessments on faulty reports from agents inside Ukraine, leading to massive financial waste. Budanov added that due to these flawed assessments, Russian analysts made unrealistic conclusions, shaping the Kremlin’s initial war strategy. Moscow “planned to enter Kyiv in three days” and expected to “eliminate remaining resistance within ten” – a plan that ultimately resulted in “a full-scale war that, tomorrow, will mark its third anniversary.”

Forum

The “Ukraine. Year 2025” forum is taking place in Kyiv, featuring top state officials and concluding with a press conference by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Verkhovna Rada speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk opened the event, with participation from PM Denys Shmyhal, First Deputy PM Yuliia Svyrydenko, Presidential Office Head Andrii Yermak, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk, HUR chief Kyrylo Budanov, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Foreign Intelligence Service Head Oleh Ivashchenko, and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

Related:

• North Korean troops return to Kursk using new tactics and guided missiles
• North Korean propaganda claimed South Koreans operate Ukrainian drones, POWs disclose
• North Korea gains combat experience, improves weapons through Russian war, Ukrainian intel says
• Captured North Korean soldier in Ukraine requests asylum in South Korea
• Ukraine destroys first North Korean-supplied Koksan howitzer – 199 to go (video)
• Syrskyi: Ukraine holds 500 km² of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast