Poland has begun discussing with the allies the possibility of intercepting Russian drones and missiles while they are still over Ukrainian territory. According to Defense Express analysts, this is technically possible, but it raises a number of complex issues, including avoiding friendly fire.
The idea of intercepting Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine first emerged in 2022, in response to calls to “close the skies.”
Politically, the chances of a massive agreement among all NATO or EU members remain low. More realistic are limited missions by individual countries, such as the UK, France, and Germany.
Meanwhile, Moscow denied targeting Poland with drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that no targets on Polish territory were intended, responding to accusations after 19 Russian drones violated Poland’s airspace on 10 September for approximately six hours.
Idea and background
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that the West should consider intercepting Russian drones and missiles in Ukraine’s airspace. He emphasized that Poland cannot make this decision alone; it must be coordinated with allies.
Analysts note that the final decision is primarily political, and the chances of alliance-wide approval are low. However, initiatives by a limited number of countries are much more likely to be implemented.
Technical possibilities
If ground-based air defense systems and placing fighters at Ukrainian airfields are excluded, the most realistic scenario is air patrols from NATO’s eastern flank bases.
This would involve F-16s, F-35s, Rafales, and Eurofighters stationed at Polish or other border airbases, conducting patrol flights within effective range. Existing deployments show few logistical obstacles: in August, German Eurofighters were based at the 23rd Air Base near Warsaw. From there, fighters could reach Volyn Oblast in Ukraine, bordering Poland, in approximately 15 minutes without afterburners.
Key technical parameters include:
- Effective patrol range
- Flight duration
- Long-range radar detection (AWACS)
- Patrol time, up to several hours, depending on aircraft type and flight profile, determining which areas over Ukraine can be covered.
Main challenge: avoiding friendly fire
The key issue is coordination between partners and the Ukrainian side. A practical solution could be the creation of a conditional “no-fly, no-AAA” zone for Ukrainian forces, within which only allied fighters would operate.
This approach reduces the risk of friendly fire but significantly limits patrol areas. Analysts emphasize that real interception zones will be localized, mostly covering Ukraine’s border regions.