The latest incident

Around 19 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace during the night of 9-10 September 2025. Ukraine reports that “several dozen” Russian drones moved along the Ukraine-Belarus border and across western regions of Ukraine, “approaching targets on Ukrainian territory and, apparently, on Polish territory.”

The violation lasted over six hours: first drone entered around 21:30 GMT on Tuesday, with the last violation occurring around 04:30 GMT on Wednesday.

At least two drones used Belarusian airspace for the first time. The deliberate route programming followed corridors used in previous violations of Polish airspace.

Poland shot down four Russian drones with Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s. Seven pieces of debris were recovered, including one that crashed into a residential building.

The telling comparison: Ukraine downs 87.4% of Russian long-range drones. Poland only shot down 17-21% of the drones that entered its airspace.

Was this deliberate?

While Russia has denied intentions to target Poland, many Western officials and NATO members have deemed the breach deliberate and escalatory. Poland sees it as “an act of aggression“, and commentators labelled it a test of alliance resolve and an attempt to strain NATO’s air-defence readiness.

Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski said that the drones “did not veer off course” but deliberately targeted Poland, as he called out “lies and denials” from Russia.

His assessment is supported by the drones entering from Belarus, which, as such, were not part of the complex strike package targeting Ukraine. The scale and coordination of the incursion—far larger than any previous incidents—further support the view.

NATO’s limited response

Prime Minister Donald Tusk invoked Article 4, launching NATO consultations.

It means that Poland considers its territorial integrity, political independence, or security threatened and is launching a consultation mechanism to discuss its security concerns within the North Atlantic Council. This could pave the way for joint NATO action, but it does not necessitate it.

Article 4 has been invoked only 8 times since NATO’s establishment in 1949; five were triggered by Türkiye. Poland previously invoked it in March 2014 after Russia illegally annexed Crimea.

In 2022, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia triggered Article 4 over Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and concerns over potential threats to NATO’s eastern flank and possible Russian spillover. As a result, the Alliance dramatically increased its forward presence, activated defense plans, and boosted air policing missions in the east.

But this incident does not constitute significant escalation. It represents one incident in a far too long list of Russian attacks and provocations spanning the last 1,295 days of systematic hybrid warfare.

Russia’s systematic hybrid warfare campaign

Since 2022, Russia has waged a comprehensive hybrid war against Europe. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted a resolution on 30 January 2025, stressing that “hybrid warfare tactics employed by the Russian Federation through cyber-attacks, arson, disinformation campaigns and sabotage further threaten European security.”

Russia’s acts of malignant activities include:

(1) Terrorism. The EU recognized Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism based on its illegal, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine, including indiscriminate attacks against residential areas and civilian infrastructure, summary executions, abductions, sexual violence, torture and other atrocities, and its targeting of Ukrainian critical infrastructure all over the country to terrorize the population and cut access to gas, electricity, water, the internet and other basic goods and services.

This designation also reflects Russia’s responsibility for the global food security crisis, its threats to the safety and security of the whole European continent and the rules-based international order through efforts to undermine the security and safety of Ukraine’s nuclear facilities and threats of using nuclear weapons, as well as Russia’s persistent threats to employ “military-technical measures” in response to Europe’s support for Ukraine, and Russia’s weaponizing energy as a tool of geopolitical coercion.

(2) Assassinations. Russia planned to murder Armin Papperger, the CEO of a powerful German arms manufacturer. Sources said the assassination attempt was one of a series of Russian plans to assassinate defence industry executives across Europe who support Ukraine’s military efforts.

(3) Sabotage. Since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Russia has significantly intensified sabotage against European countries that support Ukraine. Key statistics:

• Attacks on critical infrastructure quadrupled in 2023 and tripled in 2024 to 30 attacks
• IISS counted 11 suspected Russian-backed hybrid attacks in Europe between January and May 2025
• Targets include undersea cables, warehouses, and railroad networks across Europe

(4) Arson. Russian intelligence has been linked to a coordinated campaign of arson attacks across multiple European countries, particularly targeting commercial and symbolic facilities. Regional security agencies and NATO have raised alarms over a series of suspicious fires in warehouses, shops, and transport infrastructure—suspected to be part of a synchronized sabotage campaign by Russian proxies. This includes arson attacks in the UK, Czechia, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, and Poland.

(5) Underwater warfare. Russia attacks pipelines and data cables in the Baltic and interferes with water supplies in Sweden and Finland. At the other end of the scale, Russian spy sensors were recently uncovered in the sea around the UK, which are believed to have been installed to track the movements of the British nuclear submarines.

Russia has long begun preparing for a war with NATO. This strategy involves monitoring and laying the groundwork for possible sabotage of underwater infrastructure. “There should be no doubt, there is a war raging in the Atlantic… We are seeing phenomenal amounts of Russian activity.”

(6) Navigation warfare. European countries “have raised concerns to international transport organisations over sharp increases in GPS and signal jamming and spoofing in recent months as well as an increase in Russian electronic warfare (EW) installations in border areas.” Key impact:

• Russian GPS jamming affected 122,600 flights over northern Europe in the first four months of 2025 alone
• A joint report by Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland concludes this poses a serious threat to international aviation safety

(7) Cyberattacks. Russian hackers have intensified their attacks against the UK and other NATO allies providing military aid to Ukraine. Russia has targeted the media, telecommunications, political and democratic institutions, and energy infrastructure. Russia systematically conducts cyberattacks 48 hours before physical missile strikes.

(8) Information warfare. A recent Polish report highlighted a deliberate Russian strategy of undermining trust in democratic institutions, NATO, and the EU. Polish analysts estimated Russia spends $2–4 billion annually on information operations, framing them as a systematic, multi-channel campaign.

(9) Election interference. “Russia leads the charge in spreading fake articles and videos aimed at influencing the US presidential election,” a statement from the National Intelligence, the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said. On 6 December 2024, the Romanian Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round of the presidential election, due to a coordinated foreign manipulation effort.

(10) Maritime violations. Russia actively restricts freedom of navigation, particularly in strategic maritime zones like the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, and parts of the Arctic, often using military pressure, administrative controls, or hybrid tactics. Russia frequently uses “Notice to Mariners” (NOTMARs) and similar maritime advisories—such as Navigational Warnings (NAVWARNs)—as means, often in ways that exceed international legal norms. These actions challenge international maritime law, especially the principles set out in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)—even though Russia is a signatory.

(11) Airspace violations. Romania has detected Russian drones within its borders repeatedly. Only Belarus—Moscow’s ally—attempts to shoot down drones. Moldova, Romania, Poland, and Lithuania have all failed to intercept drones.

NATO’s utter failure

In September 2021, the EU Parliament concluded Russia is waging hybrid war against EU and NATO members. No NATO member has invoked Article 4 over this systematic campaign.

While NATO acknowledges cyberattacks can trigger Article 5, it refuses to act on Russia’s campaign of terrorism, assassinations, sabotage, arson, infrastructure attacks, navigation warfare, cyberattacks, information warfare, election interference, maritime violations, and repeated airspace violations.

The Alliance has utterly failed to deter Russian aggression. NATO failed to act when war started in 2014, failed again in 2022, and during The Hague Summit even delayed introducing 5% defense budget requirements to 2035—5-8 years after it might be at war with Russia.

Russia has succeeded in cognitive warfare, pacifying the world’s strongest military alliance through fear that action might trigger broader confrontation. The confrontation is already taking place.

The solution

Reactions to Russian aggression will not escalate the war. NATO’s failure to respond has shown that inaction escalates the war. Appeasement fuels aggressor risk-taking, increasing the chances of strategic miscalculations that lead to World Wars.

To ensure strategic clarity and secure NATO territory, the Alliance should:

• A. Invoke Article 5 based on Russia’s hybrid war campaign and consequently mobilize its defense industrial base, accelerate rearming and rebuilding military power, and prepare society for possible war with Russia.
• B. Immediately close the sky over Western Ukraine to stop Russian missiles and drones from approaching NATO territory.
• C. Deploy military forces to Ukrainian cities and ports to stop Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians and crucial infrastructure—health and medical facilities, schools and kindergartens, energy and water infrastructure.

Unfortunately, NATO lacks the courage to stop Russian aggression. This drone “attack” will mark yet another step on the escalation ladder as the Alliance remains trapped in “Boiled Frog Syndrome.”