The world holds its breath after an Israeli strike on Iran, but Kyiv braces for worse as Washington’s priorities may shift, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports. 

Global reaction has been mixed, ranging from calls for restraint to avoid a regional war to open support for Israel’s decisive action. But for Ukraine, this escalation spells troubling consequences.

Analysts warn that the rising tensions between Israel and Iran could prompt the United States to divert its attention and resources from the war in Ukraine to the Middle East. This would be a deeply dangerous shift for Kyiv, which depends on uninterrupted allied support to resist Russian aggression.

“Without a doubt, this will distract some attention from the defense of Ukraine against Russian aggression,” said Roland Freudenstein, a Brussels-based analyst.

The Trump administration has been clear about its intent to bring the war in Ukraine to a swift close, even at the cost of painful compromises. A new crisis in the Persian Gulf only reinforces this narrative. Meanwhile, Trump’s self-imposed “two-week” window for striking a deal with Russia has just expired.

Beyond geopolitics, energy markets are also feeling the impact. Following Israel’s strikes, oil prices surged to $75 per barrel, a $5 spike in just hours. That’s direct profit for the Kremlin’s war chest.

“If the Middle East crisis deepens, it will inevitably push energy prices up. And in some ways, this benefits Russia,” warns analyst Ian Lesser.

While considering a price cap of $45 per barrel on Russian oil, the European Union risks losing leverage. Kyiv is demanding even tougher measures, a $30 cap, to strangle the Kremlin’s war financing. But in the current chaos, this plan may become harder to implement.

Once again, Ukraine stands to become a victim in a war, this time between Israel and Iran.