The confrontation between Israel and Iran is gaining momentum. These developments will have a direct impact on the Russia-Ukraine war. The coming weeks will show how intensely the situation in the Middle East will escalate, Ukrainian diplomat and former Ambassador to the US Valery Chalyi told Channel 24.
On 13 June, Israel carried out a large-scale military Rising Lion operation targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. The operation, years in the making, resembling Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb, as both involved coordinated drone swarms launched from hidden bases to cripple enemy infrastructure. Iran responded with ballistic missile attacks, killing three. It still refuses to stop its nuclear program despite Trump’s direct offer.
In the short term, Chalyi believes the events in the Middle East will not significantly affect Ukraine. However, global risks are very real.
“It is important that Russia loses money. That would be possible if oil prices dropped,” Chalyi explains.
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But if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices skyrocket, the Kremlin would receive additional profits to fund the war.
Another threat is the West’s shifting focus. In the event of a major war, the US might choose to prioritize arms supplies to Israel over Ukraine, Chalyi warns.
However, there is also an opportunity: if Israel destroys Iran’s ballistic missiles and Shahed drones, that would directly reduce Russia’s ability to strike Ukrainian cities.
“Although the Russians are manufacturing drones, they’re doing it using Iranian technology. The Iranians are helping them tremendously,” the diplomat notes.
According to Chalyi, a prolonged Israel-Iran war would clearly work against Ukraine. The Kremlin could attempt to exploit the situation to negotiate with the West.
Chalyi emphasizes that Iran is an enemy of Ukraine. In 2020, its military shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, killing all 176 people on board. Today, Iran supplies Russia with drones, and possibly missiles.
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“If Israel destroys the rockets and Shaheds that could kill Ukrainians—maybe that’s karma,” Chalyi suggests.
He adds that Ukraine is now a global player with one of the strongest armies in the world. Therefore, it must act strategically in cooperation with the EU and the US to prevent a drawn-out war in the Middle East while simultaneously securing victory on its own front.