Belarus is unlikely to become directly involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine in the near future, as such a move could significantly destabilize the country’s internal political landscape and threaten Alexander Lukashenko’s hold on power, according to the Bureau for the Protection of the Constitution (BZS).

In its latest annual report, BZS assessed that Lukashenko’s regime remains stable thanks to repressions and tight restrictions on freedom of speech, Delfi reports. Meanwhile, Belarus’ reliance on Russia continues to deepen, along with Moscow’s growing influence over Minsk

“Russian interests remain the dominant force in Belarus’ foreign policy. Despite this, Minsk is actively seeking new economic partners and markets for its goods. The report suggests that many of Russia’s mechanisms of influence in Belarus will persist even after Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin leave power,” the publication notes.

In 2024-2025, Belarusian authorities further tightened their grip on the country, persecuting opposition figures and their families. Meanwhile, Russia took steps last year to further integrate Belarus into a unified state structure.

Lukashenko’s close ties with Russia serve as a guarantee of his continued rule, helping him maintain control and stability. However, he is also aware that his dependence on Moscow threatens his ability to govern independently. As a result, he is increasingly focused on reducing Belarus’ isolation from the West to counterbalance Russian influence, the report concludes.