The potential benefits of allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range strike systems against Russia may be underestimated by Western policymakers, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). 

The US and other Western governments have been reluctant to authorize Ukraine to use Western-supplied systems for long-range strikes within Russian territory. This hesitancy stems from concerns that Russian retaliation could outweigh any potential gains for Ukraine and mean that NATO would be officially involved in the war. 

Possible retaliatory measures could include covert attacks on US and European strategic facilities and military bases in Europe.

However, ISW reports that the Kremlin has long been engaged in covert operations against Western powers, predating the current debate on Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons.

These operations may intensify regardless of the West’s decision, as they align with broader Kremlin objectives to destabilize European countries and undermine NATO’s military readiness.

ISW also notes that Russian forces continue to exploit territory within the range of Western-provided systems to conduct offensive operations against Ukraine. The think tank suggests that Western policymakers have the authority to remove this tactical advantage and potentially complicate Russia’s war efforts.

On 11 September, Putin invoked the Kremlin’s “red lines” narrative, stating that Ukrainian strikes against Russia using Western-provided weapons would represent an escalation and directly involve Western countries in the war. 

He further escalated rhetoric on 25 September by outlining conditions under which Russia might justify using nuclear weapons. Putin specified that now this includes cases where Russia is attacked by non-nuclear states backed by nuclear powers.

ISW believes this announcement is a strategic attempt to intimidate Western nations and deter them from supporting Ukraine.

Related:

• ISW: Putin’s nuclear threats aim to influence Western support for Ukraine
• Putin’s nuclear threats proven hollow as Ukraine invades Russia, expert says
• FT: Leaked Russian military documents show lower threshold for use of nuclear weapons than Putin claims
• Putin’s nuclear bluff: How the West and China called him outISW: West may underestimate benefits of long-range strikes for Ukraine