The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) issued a warning, stating that the Kremlin is preparing to mobilize reservists on a rolling basis to sustain its war in Ukraine. The Washington-based think tank said this would mark the first time Russia conducts continuous call-ups without formally declaring war or general mobilization.

Kremlin creates legal loophole for hidden mobilization

ISW reported 13 October that the Russian Cabinet of Ministers’ Commission on Legislative Activity approved a Defense Ministry draft amendment allowing the Kremlin to deploy members of the so-called human mobilization reserve abroad, including to Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, without declaring war. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov said the law would permit President Vladimir Putin to mobilize reservists for special tasks in conflicts and counterterrorism operations.

ISW said the change “marks a significant inflection in Russian law” by removing the legal barrier that previously forbade sending reservists to combat without official mobilization. The amendment also creates a new category of “special assemblies,” in which reservists would train for up to two months before being deployed abroad.

Russia’s paid recruitment system is collapsing

According to ISW, the Kremlin’s “pay-to-play system” for attracting recruits through high bonuses and financial incentives “is likely hitting diminishing returns.” Moscow’s recruitment offices have failed to raise enlistment rates despite offering bigger payments than in 2023 and 2024. 

Kremlin had relied on expensive incentives to avoid a repeat of the chaotic mobilization of 2022. The creation of a rolling mobilization mechanism, ISW said, “would be a major inflection in Russia’s force generation strategy.”

Active versus inactive reserves

The think tank detailed that Russia maintains two reserve systems. The active “human mobilization reserve” includes about two million volunteers who signed contracts with the Defense Ministry and remain civilians until called up. The inactive reserve, known as the “zapas,” consists of older men not affiliated with the armed forces. ISW clarified that the new regulation concerns only the active reserve, not the wider zapas.

Centralizing control and expanding eligibility and avoiding public backlash

ISW assessed that the Kremlin is likely to “formally amend restrictions” on using the active reserve and begin partial rolling mobilization without declaring war. It said officials such as Deputy Defense Committee Chairman Alexei Zhuravlyov had implied that the law would allow call ups “in far more cases than before.”

The report added that Moscow will likely misrepresent mobilized reservists as volunteers to hide the scale of compulsory service. ISW warned that “the Kremlin will pull these reservists from established pools of reserve forces, whom the Russian state will compel to fight in Ukraine.”

ISW assessed that the Kremlin is unlikely to declare large-scale mobilization of the inactive reserve because of fears over public unrest and economic disruption. Russian officials continue to emphasize that all service is “voluntary,” suggesting the regime wants to avoid asking citizens for further sacrifices.

Cheaper troops

ISW concluded that rolling compulsory mobilization could allow Russia to generate manpower more cheaply than the current costly volunteer drive.

“Russia may be able to more sustainably generate forces if it uses coercion and legal mechanisms,” ISW said, but warned that the policy “may pose greater political risks to the Kremlin.”