President Donald Trump has ordered a pause on critical US military aid to Ukraine, creating significant challenges for the country’s defense capabilities, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 4 March.
The White House announced a review of military assistance on 3 March, following the tough Trump-Zelenskyy conversation in the White House on 28 February.
According to the Wall Street Journal, an anonymous White House official said that aid will remain paused until President Zelenskyy demonstrates a “good-faith effort towards peace negotiations with Russia.”
Western military estimates suggest Ukraine can maintain its current operational pace until mid-2025. However, Ukrainian officials warn of immediate challenges.
A Ukrainian source told CNN that artillery shells could be depleted by May or June, with Patriot air defense missiles potentially running out “in a matter of weeks.”
The most immediate threat centers on air defense. Ukraine relies heavily on US-provided Patriot systems to protect critical infrastructure from daily Russian missile and drone strikes. Without these systems, Ukrainian cities become vulnerable to ballistic missile attacks.
The military aid package previously included sophisticated weapons systems: artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, towed howitzers, Patriot air defense batteries, and long-range rocket systems like HIMARS and ATACMS.
Ukrainian military planners now face difficult decisions. They must prioritize which population centers receive limited air defense protection. The potential complete loss of Patriot missile capabilities could leave major cities exposed to Russian missile strikes.
The suspension creates strategic uncertainties. While the front line may not immediately collapse, Ukraine’s defensive capabilities are significantly weakened, ISW reported.
Russia attacks Ukrainian oblasts daily with various types of weapons, targeting civilian infrastructure, killing civilians and destroying hospitals, schools, kindergartens, energy and water supply facilities. Russia’s government denies this. The Ukrainian authorities and international organisations qualify these strikes as war crimes and emphasise that they are of a targeted nature.
Russia significantly increased its production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), allowing it to deploy between 150 and 200 drones in a single attack. According to Ukrainian official, Russian military aims to eventually launch up to 500 drones simultaneously against Ukraine.
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