Western ammunition is beginning to reach the artillery-scarce Ukrainian frontline following the badly-delayed US Ukraine aid package, but it will take time to see this effect, the US-based Institute for Study of War assesses in its daily update.

The arrival of Western artillery ammunition is a crucial development for Ukrainian forces, who have been outgunned by Russian artillery as much as eight to one in March. However, the limited scale of the initial deliveries means that it will take time before Ukrainian forces can fully leverage this new capability to challenge Russian advantages on the battlefield.

According to a report by the Telegraph published on June 5 cited by ISW, Western-provided artillery ammunition has begun to arrive to Ukrainian forces on the frontline near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City. However, the scale of the deliveries is not yet sufficient to fully challenge the Russian military’s current artillery shell advantage.

One Ukrainian soldier told the Telegraph that Russian forces in the area still maintain a five-to-one artillery advantage. “Western-provided ammunition started to reach their sector of the frontline, but that Russian forces in the area still maintain a munitions advantage,” the soldier said.

Similarly, a Ukrainian soldier operating in an unspecified area of the frontline told Estonian outlet ERR that Western-provided ammunition began to “trickle” to the frontline but has not arrived at scale. The soldier stated that Russian forces continue to have a “significant advantage” in munitions.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that “Russian forces are attempting to make tactically and operationally significant gains before US military assistance arrives to Ukrainian forces at the frontline at scale, and that the initial arrival of Western-provided weaponry will take some time to have tactical to operational effect on the frontline.”

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