The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) continues to assess that Ukraine will need a substantial number of F-16 jets “in order to field them at the scale necessary for Ukraine to succeed in integrating fixed wing aircraft into its wider air defense umbrella.”

On 4 August, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine’s receipt of the initial batch of F-16s, with contributions from Denmark, the Netherlands, and the US. According to The Economist, Ukraine now has 10 of the planned 79 jets and expects to operate 20 by the end of 2024.

Ukraine will “notably need to continue efforts to target Russian air defense assets within the Russian rear and in occupied Ukraine with Western-provided long-range weapons to enable its use of F-16 jets,” ISW notes.

According to ISW, Russian military bloggers have been attempting to minimize the potential battlefield impact of Ukraine receiving F-16s, contradicting Russian information campaigns that have previously depicted the provision of such Western weaponry as an uncrossable “red line.”

Several Russian military bloggers have claimed that the significance of Ukraine receiving F-16s is being exaggerated by Western and Ukrainian media to shift focus from failures on the battlefield. These bloggers also quickly began speculating on Russian forces’ potential strategies to target and destroy the jets.

Russian officials and commentators often describe the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine as crossing a “red line,” suggesting such actions might provoke Russia to escalate its military response.

Meanwhile, Russia has repeatedly proven that the invocation of supposed “red lines” is a “reflexive control technique intended to force the West into self-deterring against providing Ukraine with additional military aid,” ISW wrote.

“Western and Ukrainian policies have crossed Russia’s self-defined ‘red lines’ multiple times since the beginning of the war without drawing a significant Russian reaction, which Russian milblogger comments suggest will prove to be the case with Russia’s response to F-16s,” ISW says.

Related:

• Ukraine receives F-16 fighter jets with early missile warning systems
• Zelenskyy confirms the delivery of F-16s and congratulates troops on the Air Force Day
• Ukraine reportedly receives 10 F-16 fighter jets in the first batch
• Atlantic Council: F-16 jets to bolster Ukraine’s air defense but won’t alter war dynamics, analyst says
• The Times: Ukraine receives first F-16 fighter jets from Netherlands