According to ISW: for the first time since its full-scale invasion began, Russia has achieved what had long eluded the Kremlin: operational breathing room. Since January 2025, Moscow has signed contracts with 292,000 new recruits more than the active armies of most European countries allowing fresh troops to be held back from the front lines.

Russian troops are attempting to advance in the different directions but Ukrainian units demonstrate flexible defense and a high level of coordination. 

Falling Russian casualties in August and September have enabled the formation of long-anticipated strategic reserves key for any future large-scale offensive. Meanwhile, Ukrainian partisans are striking deep behind enemy lines. On 21 September, the Atesh group sabotaged a key railway in Russia’s Smolensk Oblast, disrupting supply lines to a major plant producing Kh-59 cruise missiles, drones, and aircraft parts. Over 10 control elements were destroyed, potentially halting deliveries for weeks.

ISW reported that in the north, Russia continues to build buffer zones along the Sumy and Chernihiv borders. This is not just about defense it’s about staging future offensives. Deployed units include Black Sea Fleet marines, the 72nd Motor Rifle Division, elements of the elite 106th Airborne Division, and the Anvar special unit.

In Kharkiv Oblast, the battle for Vovchansk reflects Russia’s attritional approach. Waves of infantry attack across the Vovcha River under relentless drone surveillance and strikes. Near Kupiansk, Russian troops have seized Kindrashivka and pressure Ukrainian positions daily. Analysts say Russia trades lives for minor territorial gains.

In the Borova-Lyman direction, Russian forces attack from multiple directions. Pro-Russian sources claim the capture of Shandryholove, though independent confirmation is lacking. In Donetsk, most attacks have failed, but near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka, Russia has advanced, deploying six battalions against single Ukrainian units.

ISW mentioned that Russian progress stalls, attacks on civilian infrastructure escalate. On the night of September 20–21, Russia launched 54 drones; 33 were downed, the rest hit targets in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. In one week, Moscow fired over 1,500 drones, 1,280 glide bombs, and 50 missiles. Over 132,000 foreign-made components have been found in downed Russian weapons proof of widespread sanctions evasion.