The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has revealed critical insights into Russia’s evolving military strategy in Ukraine, highlighting the Kremlin’s persistent focus on capturing Pokrovsk and the significant challenges facing Russian offensive operations.
According to ISW, Russian forces are preparing to advance on Pokrovsk from the south and southeast during Winter 2024-25. Kremlin-awarded Rybar Telegram channel founder Mikhail Zvinchuk noted that the military intends to prioritize urban areas like Toretsk and Kurakhove.
The report emphasizes that Russia’s offensive efforts reflect President Putin’s “theory of victory” – an assumption that Russia’s war machine, supported by allies like Iran, China, and North Korea, can outlast Ukraine and its Western partners. However, ISW provides compelling evidence challenging this premise.
The analysis reveals that Russian forces lost approximately 80,000 troops in September and October 2024 but recruited only 60-70,000 replacements, indicating a breakdown in their personnel replacement strategy. Ukrainian and Western assessments also suggest that Russian domestic production of military equipment falls far short of battlefield losses.
ISW warns that Ukraine’s future success depends on its ability to leverage these asymmetric capabilities and challenge Russian control. The report stresses that Western military assistance remains crucial. ISW said that previous delays have undermined Ukraine’s defensive and counteroffensive capabilities.
Read also:
- ISW: Russian advances recorded near Kupiansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar
- Forbes: outnumbered Ukrainian brigade destroys 206 heavy Russian vehicles in critical Pokrovsk direction
- ISW: Russians made progress near Pokrovsk and Selydove