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Euromaidanpress
Euromaidan Press
8 Dec 2024
Yuri Zoria


ISW: Russians resume offensive to capture Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk from south

Russian forces focus on advancing through Novotroitske and Shevchenko to cut major highways and force Ukrainian withdrawal from the city.
isw russians resume offensive capture donetsk oblast's pokrovsk south donetsk-oblast-war-map russian forces focus advancing through novotroitske shevchenko cut major highways force ukrainian withdrawal city have launched renewed aimed capturing southern
Map: ISW
ISW: Russians resume offensive to capture Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk from south

Russian forces have launched a renewed offensive aimed at capturing Pokrovsk through a southern turning maneuver, the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 7 December. The operation follows successful expansion of Russian positions south and southeast of the town.

Russia continues efforts to capture Ukrainian-controlled areas in northwest Donetsk Oblast, heavily relying on “meat assault” frontal attacks that cause significant losses for minimal gains. Reports suggest Russia is now attempting to shift from this costly tactic while aiming to maintain its advancement rate.

According to ISW, elements of Russia’s 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade have advanced along the Petrivka-Pustynka-Zhovte line south of Pokrovsk. Russian forces have captured Novopustynka and made advances near Shevchenko’s southern outskirts. Geolocated footage from 6 December shows Russian progress north of Novotroitske and along the T-05-15 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynopil highway.

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that elements of the Russian 90th Tank Division are conducting attacks along the Novotroitske-Ukrainka line. On 6 December, Mashovets reported that Russian forces likely seized Stari Terny, indicating near-complete elimination of the Ukrainian pocket north of the Kurakhivske Reservoir.

isw russians resume offensive capture donetsk oblast's pokrovsk south situation-military-near-pokrovsk-donetsk-oblast-map russian forces focus advancing through novotroitske shevchenko cut major highways force ukrainian withdrawal city have launched renewed aimed capturing southern
Map: ISW

The UK Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces suffered record-high casualties in November 2024, with daily losses averaging 1,523 and total monthly casualties exceeding 45,000.

ISW assesses that Russian forces aim to flank Pokrovsk from the west to force Ukrainian withdrawal from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, avoiding costly frontal assaults, which have been the key Russian tactics since the beginning of the all-out war in 2022. The Russian military intends to interdict the T-05-15, T-04-06, and M-30 highways to complicate Ukrainian logistics.

Continued intensified offensive operations in Ukraine […] have put an unsustainable strain on Russia’s force generation apparatus and economy. Russian authorities will likely have to balance mounting personnel losses and the growing pressure to enact a deeply unpopular partial involuntary reserve callup – which would further strain Russia’s labor shortages and economy — against the desire to seize Pokrovsk and the rest of Donetsk Oblast,” ISW concluded.

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