Senior Russian officials are setting informational conditions that could “support future military operations against Lithuania” or other NATO countries, according to a 3 May assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The US-based think tank cited recent propaganda efforts denying the sovereignty of Baltic and other former Soviet states.

Independent Russian outlets Meduza and Agentstvo reported on 2 May that Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote the foreword to a book titled History of Lithuania, published in March 2025 by the Foreign Relations division of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO).

Lavrov’s foreword claims Baltic nations use “falsified” history to stoke anti-Russian and “Russophobic” sentiment among their populations. The Russian top diplomat stated that the book analyzes “the development of the lands that were associated with Lithuania at different times.”

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said the publication is a Russian propaganda tool intended to provide the Kremlin with scholarly-looking justification for denying the statehood and distinct histories of neighboring countries.

ISW noted that Kremlin messaging has increasingly portrayed states formerly part of the Russian Empire or Soviet Union—such as Lithuania—as belonging to modern-day Russia.