Russian officials “appear to be setting conditions” for President Vladimir Putin to reject Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s proposal for bilateral ceasefire talks set for 15 May in Istanbul, Türkiye, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its 12 May assessment.

Federation Council Deputy Speaker Konstantin Kosachev dismissed Zelenskyy’s invitation as a “pure spectacle” and “comedy,” claiming that such meetings cannot occur in the current climate. He accused Zelenskyy of attempting to shift blame onto Russia for Ukraine’s supposed disinterest in negotiations.

Russian Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik, quisling official who served as Viktor Yanukovych’s press secretary, also questioned the sincerity behind Zelenskyy’s initiative, while Deputy Chairperson of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs Alexei Chepa expressed doubt that Putin would travel to Türkiye. Chepa falsely claimed Ukraine had previously violated agreements and imposed ceasefires unilaterally, suggesting Russia cannot trust Ukraine in such talks.

Vladimir Rogov, an occupation official in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claimed that Zelenskyy’s invitation was a strategic ploy to frame Putin as uncooperative. Rogov stated Zelenskyy is trying to hijack the broader discourse on peace negotiations and present Putin negatively if he refuses to attend.

Though the Kremlin has not issued an official response to the invitation, statements from lower-level Russian officials indicate a high likelihood that Putin will not participate in the Istanbul talks.

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Narrative of illegitimacy continues

ISW noted that Putin has invested heavily in shaping domestic public opinion to support a prolonged war, including promoting the false narrative that Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government are ostensibly illegitimate. This narrative has been a central justification for Russia’s refusal to engage in direct or genuine negotiations with Kyiv.

Putin, as recently as his response to the Istanbul invitation, referred only to “Kyiv authorities,” avoiding any mention of Zelenskyy or the Ukrainian government. Senior Kremlin figures most recently repeated this narrative in late April, and Russian state media continues amplifying it as of 12 May.

ISW found no evidence that the Kremlin is preparing to abandon this rhetoric. Instead, it assessed that Putin may allow it to fade temporarily only to reactivate it if Russia decides to break a future peace agreement and relaunch hostilities under the pretext of Ukrainian illegitimacy.

“Any long-term peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine must include Russia’s explicit recognition of the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president, government, and the Ukrainian Constitution,” ISW says.