The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 16 May that Russian forces continue expanding their salient northeast of Pokrovsk and southwest of Toretsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. However, it remains unclear whether Russian command will prioritize advancing on Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka this summer. ISW assesses Russia likely lacks the manpower, matériel, and coordination to pursue both offensives simultaneously.
ISW confirms via geolocated footage that Russia captured Myroliubivka and Mykhailivka, with milbloggers reporting gains around both settlements. Russia’s Ministry of Defense credited the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade, inactive since March near Kurakhove, with the advance. The unit is now active near Pokrovsk.
Ukrainian positions resist at Yelyzavetivka
Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets reported that Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in and around Yelyzavetivka, hindering Russian attempts to advance toward Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. Russian milbloggers confirmed the ongoing Ukrainian presence north of Yelyzavetivka. ISW expanded on its map the Ukrainian territorial control in the area, although these advances likely occurred earlier.
Mashovets also noted that Russian units from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army) and the 51st Combined Arms Army are attempting to push from Malynivka toward Novoekonomichne and Nova Poltavka, aiming to encircle Yelyzavetivka and threaten both Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk.
Redeployments indicate renewed focus on Pokrovsk
Russian forces intensified attacks northeast and east of Pokrovsk, reversing their earlier withdrawal in 2024. Ukrainian officials reported fresh Russian reinforcements in this sector. ISW noted the redeployment of the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th Army Corps, EMD) from Kurakhove to near Malynivka.
ISW suggested this, along with the appointment of Valery Solodchuk as Central Military District commander, indicates a renewed Russian focus on seizing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian forces may prioritize the Vozdvyzhenka–Yelyzavetivka–Myrne–Razine axis to avoid more urban combat in Novoekonomichne and Myrnohrad.
Offensive toward Kostiantynivka also intensifies
Simultaneously, Russian forces continue pushing toward Kostiantynivka. According to Mashovets, they are attacking along the T-0504 Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway and from Stara Mykolaivka toward Stepanivka, Yablunivka, and Romanivka. ISW reports activity from the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions in this area, with new deployments from Zaporizhzhia and Kursk into supporting sectors.
ISW: Moscow likely cannot sustain both operations
ISW assesses Russia is unlikely to have the manpower, materiel, or operational capacity to simultaneously execute an envelopment of Pokrovsk and a major offensive toward Kostiantynivka. Recent Ukrainian estimates suggest Russia is growing its forces slowly but lacks the reserves for sustained dual-axis operations.
ISW concludes that without a clear prioritization between Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka, Russia risks overextension and operational failure. Russia must also balance these campaigns with ongoing pressure in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kupiansk, Lyman, and Borova.