Russian forces suffered their second-highest monthly casualties of the full-scale invasion in January 2025 while their territorial gains decreased, the Institute for Study of War (ISW) reported on 3 February.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Russian forces lost 48,240 troops in January 2025, equivalent to more than three Russian motorized rifle divisions, ISW reports.
Russian advance on Ukraine slows by half as troop recruitment crisis deepens
ISW’s analysis of geolocated evidence shows Russian forces captured approximately 498 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast during January, averaging 16.1 square kilometers per day. This suggests Russian forces suffered about 96 casualties for each square kilometer of seized territory, according to ISW.
December 2024 saw Russia’s highest monthly casualties since the February 2022 invasion, with 48,670 troops lost, according to the Ukrainian MoD. ISW assessed that Russian forces gained 593 square kilometers that month.
The approximately 100-square-kilometer decrease in territorial gains between December 2024 and January 2025, combined with similar casualty rates, indicates Russian forces are maintaining high losses despite achieving fewer advances, ISW reports.
ISW previously observed that Russian advances had already begun slowing from November to December 2024. While the Russian military command appeared willing to accept record casualties from September through November 2024 to facilitate larger territorial gains, ISW notes that “it remains unclear whether the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces’ rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces are advancing on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk.”
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