The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 15 February that Russian advances in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, south and southwest of Pokrovsk, have significantly slowed over the past two weeks, amid indications of a potential shift in military priorities toward Kostiantynivka operations in spring and summer 2025.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated at the Munich Security Conference on 14 February that the situation in the Pokrovsk direction has shown improvement in recent days. This assessment was echoed by a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson, who confirmed decreased Russian activity in the area.
“Russian advances may be slowing south of Pokrovsk due to degradation among frontline Russian units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area,” ISW says.
According to Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov, Russian forces suffered approximately 7,000 personnel killed in action near Pokrovsk in January 2025. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that total Russian casualties in this direction reached 15,000 during the same period.
Russia eyes Kostiantynivka after Toretsk gains in Donetsk Oblast but Ukraine resists assaults
Russian forces have encountered difficulties advancing north of Kotlyne and west of Udachne, facing stronger Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukrainian forces have launched several counterattacks near Kotlyne and Pishchane, threatening Russian positions in the salient.
A Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian drone operations are severely hampering Russian activities in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian drones are reportedly striking Russian forces operating beyond three kilometers north and west of Selydove, while monitoring and restricting access to all roads in the area. The source indicated that these operations have made troop rotations and resupply missions “impossible” for Russian forces.
ISW reports that “the Russian military command may also intend to prioritize assaults on Kostyantynivka in 2025 and are thus reportedly not reinforcing the Russian force grouping south of Pokrovsk.”
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that the Russian military command has redeployed elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army from the Kurakhove direction to the Toretsk (Kostiantynivka) direction. A Ukrainian source noted the redeployment includes elements of the 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments, 163rd Tank Regiment, and 381st Artillery Regiment.
Russia eyes Kostiantynivka after Toretsk gains in Donetsk Oblast but Ukraine resists assaults
The Russian military command may split the 8th Combined Arms Army between the Kurakhove and Kostiantynivka directions until Russian forces eliminate the remaining Ukrainian salient west of Kurakhove. The redeployment suggests that the Russian military command may have identified attacking Kostiantynivka as its priority effort for Spring and Summer 2025.
“The redeployment of significant Russian forces to the Kostyantynivka direction indicates that the Russian military command may have identified attacking Kostyantynivka as its priority effort for Spring and Summer 2025,” ISW wrote.
Additionally, ISW noted that the Ukrainians have recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and the Russian near Toretsk and Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
Related:
- Ukrainians reclaim Pishchane near Pokrovsk from Russian occupation, military confirms
- Frontline report: Ukraine thwarts triple Russian breakthrough attempt at vital Siversk supply hub
- Ukraine launches counterattacks near Donetsk’s Pokrovsk amid reduced Russian assaults
- Russia eyes Kostiantynivka after Toretsk gains in Donetsk Oblast but Ukraine resists assaults
- ISW: Russian forces may redeploy from Kurakhove to Toretsk area in Donetsk Oblast