Russia is projecting an image of power and strength to conceal significant weaknesses and limitations of its capabilities while distracting from battlefield failures in Ukraine, according to a new report from the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released on 9 May 2025. The report titled “Hiding Russia’s Weakness” states that the Kremlin has used the 9 May 2025 Victory Day parade in Moscow to project an image of diplomatic success and military strength.
However, ISW reports that the event underscored Russia’s isolation, with only long-time allies attending, and emphasized Putin’s dependence on China’s support.
“The Kremlin only convinced Russia’s known allies to attend the parade, while most world leaders refrained from traveling to Moscow. The Kremlin’s emphasis on Xi’s attendance shows that Russia remains dependent on its relationship with the PRC and that Putin needs great powers to validate his stature as well as to support his war effort,” ISW wrote.
According to the report, Russian President Vladimir Putin operates on the principle that “the perception of weakness can be lethal in a system built on the premise of strength” – applying this to both his regime’s stability and Russia’s global position.
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Putin’s image management
The report details how the Kremlin works to portray Putin as an effective wartime leader through staged events and information campaigns.
Despite three years of war, Putin has visited the frontlines only three times. ISW noted that in his latest frontline appearance, when Russia recaptured Sudzha in March 2025, Putin made his first visit to Kursk Oblast and appeared in uniform to claim credit.
In contrast, after Ukraine seized the town in August 2024, Putin distanced himself from the failure, instead chastising local officials. The Kremlin continues to stage leadership scenes—such as award ceremonies and heavily scripted meetings—to present Putin as engaged in military affairs.
According to ISW, Putin has been “an ineffective and cautious war leader, failing to achieve almost any of his stated military objectives three years into Russia’s war against Ukraine, despite an estimated 900,000 Russians killed and wounded.“
Suppressing dissent and controlling the narrative
ISW stated the Kremlin has used censorship laws, propaganda, and repression to silence criticism from soldiers’ families and civil society. Women-led protests against conscription and mistreatment of troops have been met with intensified crackdowns. Putin has also staged meetings with preselected women presented as relatives of servicemen to appear compassionate while suppressing authentic voices. The Kremlin restricts public discussion of losses and casualties to avoid comparisons with the Soviet experience in Afghanistan.
Manipulating battlefield narrative
The report contrasts Russia’s mediocre military gains with the Kremlin’s stated war aims. ISW states that Russian forces “only gained 1,627 square kilometers in Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk Oblast between January and April 2025 at a reported cost of 160,600 casualties.“
Currently occupying around 20 percent of Ukraine, ISW calculates that at the current monthly rate of advance in Ukraine, “it would take Russian forces over 152 years to capture the remaining 80 percent of Ukraine, if Russia can sustain massive personnel losses indefinitely.”
ISW reported that the Kremlin downplayed Ukrainian advances, such as the seizure of Sudzha and destruction of strategic bridges, while exaggerating Russian operations like the minor seizure of Soledar, Donetsk Oblast.
Losses like the withdrawal from Kherson City in November 2022 were deflected onto subordinates like Shoigu and Surovikin. Russian state TV minimized the events, and Putin never personally addressed them. Meanwhile, even modest advances are presented as decisive victories, masking the lack of real strategic progress.
Conclusion: Narrative replaces reality
The ISW report concludes that the Kremlin’s information efforts “allow the Kremlin to justify its war efforts in Ukraine, legitimize its rule, and manipulate the Western perception of Russia’s capabilities.”
The Kremlin continues to conceal its failures with staged parades, inflated success claims, and repression of dissent. Despite nearly a million casualties and limited gains, Putin maintains a façade of control through elaborate disinformation campaigns and symbolic appearances. ISW concluded these efforts reveal more about the regime’s fragility than strength.
The report urges Western leaders and observers to “focus on the realities of the situation on the battlefield and the very real constraints on Russia’s capacity to continue to wage war at the current intensity and not be deceived by the Kremlin’s efforts to conceal its challenges and flaws.”