The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 1 August that Russian forces are making gradual progress in the Pokrovsk direction, west of Avdiivka. This advance is reportedly attributed to Ukrainian manpower shortages and the terrain northwest of Avdiivka.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky identified the Pokrovsk direction as Russia’s current military priority on 1 August. Zelensky noted,
“Russian forces are currently able to advance in certain areas of the front because Ukraine is still struggling with manpower shortages and challenges in properly staffing and equipping new brigades,” the president said.
According to the ISW, some Ukrainian brigades cannot conduct rotations due to replacement brigades not being fully staffed or equipped. This creates vulnerabilities that Russian forces can exploit.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets provided insight into the situation, stating that “Ukrainian defenders in the Pokrovsk direction have inferior equipment and defensive means and are therefore currently unable to slow Russian advances.”
The ISW assessment points out that delays in Western, particularly US, military assistance have contributed to delays in equipping new Ukrainian units and re-equipping those already engaged in combat.
Recent geolocated footage from 1 August shows Russian forces advancing within Vesele towards the T0511 road, placing their furthest confirmed advance about 3.5 kilometers from Hrodivka’s outskirts. Russian military bloggers claim that forces are attacking south of Vesele along the railway line and windbreaks towards Serhiivka and Zhelanne.
Mashovets characterized recent Russian advances southeast of the O0544 road as a tactical penetration of Ukrainian lines.
“Russian forces have advanced 6.5 kilometers deep and 7.5 kilometers wide from Sokil to Serhiivka, crossing both the Vovcha and Kazennyi Torets rivers in recent weeks,” he said.
The ISW report suggests that Russian advances may slow as they approach a line of larger, more urban settlements. However, Mashovets warns that Russian forces could achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in the Pokrovsk direction by the end of August.
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