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Maria Tril


ISW: Russia delays submitting peace terms to pressure Ukraine on timing and terms

Russian officials are withholding their peace memorandum to potentially blame Ukraine for stalling negotiations if Kyiv refuses to attend a 2 June meeting in Istanbul.
Ukraine/Russia peace talks in Istanbul, 16 May 2025. Photo: RIA Novosti
ISW: Russia delays submitting peace terms to pressure Ukraine on timing and terms

Russian officials are controlling the pace and conditions of peace negotiations with Ukraine while attempting to shift blame for delays, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on 28 May that Russia would present its peace memorandum at a 2 June meeting in Istanbul. He claimed Russia’s memorandum addresses the “root causes” of the war, which he previously defined as “NATO expansion and Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against Russian speakers.”

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov responded that Ukraine is ready for negotiations and has already submitted its memorandum to Russia. However, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on 29 May that Russia has not received Ukraine’s document.

Russia is forcing Ukraine to make concessions on timing and location, ISW reported on 29 May. Putin initially suggested resuming 2022 Istanbul talks but rejected Zelenskyy’s proposal for a face-to-face meeting. Ukraine’s willingness to meet in Istanbul was itself a major concession, as it fits Putin’s narrative of resuming protocols where Russia demanded Ukraine’s surrender.

President Trump suggested moving talks to the Vatican, but Russian officials rejected this and continue insisting on Istanbul meetings.

Ukraine, the US and European states have called for Russia to agree to a renewable ceasefire before negotiations begin. The Kremlin has rejected these calls, demanding negotiations address both ceasefire and long-term peace simultaneously.

US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg told Fox News on 27 May that the US received Ukraine’s memorandum and is waiting for Russia’s version.

ISW assessed that Russian officials are withholding their memorandum until 2 June. They may blame Ukraine for stalling negotiations if Ukraine refuses to attend without receiving Russia’s document in advance. Russian forces will continue pressing along the frontline to extract additional concessions during negotiations, according to the ISW report.