Kremlin officials publicly stated that Russia seeks the “complete destruction” of Ukraine, signaling Moscow’s lack of interest in genuine peace negotiations, according to recent statements analyzed by the Institute for the Study of War.
Ukraine proposed an unconditional ceasefire, the return of deported Ukrainian children and prisoners of war, a long-term peace agreement with security guarantees and full territorial integrity, and continued talks aiming for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. Ukraine also insists on the right to join security alliances like NATO.
In contrast, Russia reiterated maximalist demands: recognition of its control over Crimea and four occupied Ukrainian oblasts, permanent Ukrainian neutrality, cancellation of ambitions to join NATO, withdrawal beyond current front lines, demobilization, ending martial law, and “regime change” in Kyiv before any peace deal.
The talks only yielded agreements on prisoner exchanges and body returns.
Russia’s Istanbul memorandum reflects the Kremlin’s public demands for Ukraine to make significant territorial and political concessions while Russia offers no concessions of its own.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on 3 June that Russia needs negotiations in Istanbul to result in Russia’s “swift victory [in Ukraine] and the complete destruction” of the Ukrainian government rather than a “compromise[d] peace on someone else’s delusional terms,” the ISW reports.
Medvedev stated that Russia’s 2 June Istanbul memorandum aligned with these objectives and threatened that Russia will “explode” everything and “disappear” anyone who opposes Russia in response to recent Ukrainian drone strikes.
The operation Spider Web on 1 June involved over 100 Ukrainian drones, covertly transported into Russia hidden in trucks, which targeted Russian strategic airbases destroying or damaging 41 long-range bombers used for attacks on Ukraine.
The ISW assesses that Russian officials have engaged with the United States in bilateral meetings as part of ongoing US mediation efforts, but have yet to demonstrate willingness to compromise on their long-standing demands.
Russia remains committed to pursuing demands that amount to nothing short of Ukraine’s full capitulation and will continue this objective as long as Putin believes Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine.
Simultaneously, Russia continues expanding its military capabilities against Ukraine, with reports by Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate showing that Russian forces had stockpiled over 13,000 ballistic, cruise, and other missiles as of mid-May 2025.
The stockpile includes almost 600 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, over 100 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, almost 300 Kh-101 cruise missiles, over 400 Kalibr cruise missiles, up to 300 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, about 700 Oniks cruise missiles and Zirkon anti-ship missiles, about 60 North Korean-produced KN-23 ballistic missiles, and approximately 11,000 S-300/400 air defense missiles.
The intelligence directorate estimated that Russia can produce roughly 150-200 missiles per month. The ISW concludes that Russian efforts to increase domestic drone and missile production and ongoing adaptation of strike packages are likely part of preparations for a prolonged war in Ukraine and possibly a future conflict against NATO.
In May 2025, the ISW also reported that Russia increased production of Shahed drones from about 100 to a planned 500 per day, and upgrading drone technologies with AI and improved navigation to evade Ukrainian defenses.
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