In a revealing statement on 5 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin inadvertently indicated that Russian forces may be suffering roughly 20,000 monthly casualties in Ukraine.
The US-based Institute for Study of War reported on 6 June that it further suggests that roughly 15,000 Russian personnel are injured in action, assuming a standard three-to-one wounded-to-killed casualty ratio.
While ISW cannot confirm Putin’s suggested casualty rate, the report states, “His apparent inadvertent admission does not serve as a clear claim about Russian casualties in Ukraine.” However, it adds, “Putin’s suggested figure does align somewhat with the lower end of Ukrainian reporting about Russian casualty rates.”
The report cites Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, who said on 2 May that Russian forces suffer about 25,000 to 30,000 killed and wounded personnel per month. It also references the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, who reported on 15 January 2024, that Russia recruits around 30,000 personnel per month.
Corroborating these figures, the report mentions Ruslan Pukhov, the head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and a member of a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) civilian advisory board, who claimed in mid-April 2024 that current Russian crypto-mobilization efforts are generating roughly 30,000 new personnel each month.
Despite these efforts, the report suggests that Russian officials are reportedly concerned about decreasing recruitment rates ahead of the expected Russian Summer 2024 offensive effort.
The ISW also reports that Russian forces have established a more sustainable force generation apparatus for ongoing offensive operations in recent months and have intensified efforts to establish operational- and strategic-level reserves.
However, it said that the marginal amount of additional newly generated forces not immediately committed to the front as reinforcements has set limits on the extent to which Russian forces can intensify offensive operations in any given direction.
Pavlyuk also said in early May 2024 that Russian forces intended to generate about 100,000 more personnel for use in offensive operations this June and July and 300,000 more personnel by the end of 2024. However, ISW assesses that Russia will likely fall far short of this goal, even at the lower limit of reported or suggested monthly Russian casualties and the upper limit of reported monthly Russian force generation.
Other key takeaways from the report:
- Limitations on Western capabilities to train partner pilots on F-16 fighter jets are reportedly creating bottlenecks that will affect Ukraine’s ability to effectively field F-16s in the future.
- French authorities are investigating multiple recent pro-Russian sabotage and societal influence operations in France amid continued Russian hybrid war measures against NATO states and France aimed at weakening support for Ukraine.
- The Russian Investigative Committee announced the arrest of a French citizen on June 6 following the early June arrest in France.
- Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Rostov Oblast and reportedly struck an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast on the nights of 5 and 6 June.
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