Ukraine is “unlikely to accept any peace agreement” based on the 2022 Istanbul protocols, as such terms would effectively constitute a full surrender to Russia’s strategic objectives, according to a new analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This comes after the high-level officials from the US and Russia met in Saudi Arabia for five hours on 18 February to discuss normalizing relations and addressing the Ukraine war. Ukraine was not invited to these talks, with Zelenskyy claiming that Ukraine will not recognize any peace agreement made without its participation.

Trump also indicated that he expects to meet Putin “very soon,” possibly by the end of February.

The US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referenced the Istanbul protocols as potential “guideposts” for future Ukraine-Russia negotiations on 23 February. 

Witkoff announced that the United States is very close to brokering a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. According to Witkoff, any agreement will require concessions from both sides—whether territorial or economic—to ensure a balanced settlement.

Witkoff also claimed that Russia’s war against Ukraine was provoked by discussions of Ukraine joining NATO—a stance that contrasts with earlier US assertions that the war was unprovoked.

ISW claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials have consistently identified Istanbul protocols as their preferred framework specifically because they would compel Western concessions to Russia’s demands.

The provisions align with Russia’s stated aims to “denazify” and “demilitarize” Ukraine, which ISW interprets as replacing the democratically elected government with a pro-Russian regime and reducing Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.

President Zelensky, who rejected these terms in 2022 with Western support, is expected to maintain this position in 2025.

Russia’s ultimatums to Ukraine in Istanbul agreements

Documents obtained by the Wall Street Journal and New York Times reveal the scope of these demands. The draft treaties would require Ukraine to become a “permanently neutral state,” foregoing NATO membership and accepting strict military limitations. These include reducing Ukraine’s armed forces to 85,000 soldiers, 342 tanks, and 519 artillery systems, while restricting missile ranges to 25 miles.

The proposed agreement would also prohibit Ukraine from receiving foreign weapons or hosting foreign military personnel. Five nations – the United States, United Kingdom, China, France, and Russia – would serve as guarantors, with Russia pushing to include Belarus. These guarantors would be required to terminate any military aid agreements with Ukraine.

Additionally, Russia sought to install pro-Moscow ex-MP Viktor Medvedchuk as head of state and required Ukrainian laws to grant official status to the Russian language. Zelenskyy criticized these demands as mere ultimatums from Putin, noting that the negotiations were not genuine discussions but rather one-sided impositions.

ISW notes that these terms were proposed during Russia’s initial advance toward Kyiv in 2022 and before Ukraine’s successful counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.

Zelenskyy willing to leave office in case of peace or NATO membership

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also declared his willingness to step down from office if it means securing peace for Ukraine or if it results in Ukraine obtaining NATO membership. 

This came in response to the US urging Ukraine to hold elections by the end of 2025 if a ceasefire with Russia can be achieved. 

Zelenskyy stressed that joining NATO is the most cost-effective way to ensure the nation’s security and called for negotiations involving Europe and the United States to bring about a lasting peace deal. He also dismissed claims that the war could be ended imminently, noting that substantive discussions on security guarantees have yet to occur.

Related:

• US special envoy: We’re close to peace deal on Russo-Ukrainian War, concessions must be made
• Zelenskyy: I’m ready to step down as president for peace or in return for NATO membership
• Russia demanded to cut Ukrainian army to 50,000 and install pro-Moscow leader in 2022 peace talks, Zelenskyy says
• EU 16th sanctions package against Russia targets shadow fleet, banks, media outlets, third-country trade