The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 25 September 2025 that Russia continues to inflate its battlefield achievements in Ukraine to support the Kremlin’s false narrative of inevitable victory.

Russia claims thousands of square kilometers seized

According to ISW, The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that its forces captured at least 4,714 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory between 1 January and 25 September 2025. The MoD listed specific gains: 205 square kilometers in Luhansk Oblast, 3,308 in Donetsk Oblast, 261 in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 175 in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 542 in Kharkiv Oblast, and 223 in Sumy Oblast. It also stated that Russian troops had taken 205 Ukrainian settlements during this time.

ISW shows major inflation in official Russian numbers

ISW assessed that actual Russian territorial gains since 1 January total only 3,434 square kilometers. According to the think tank, verified advances amount to 151 square kilometers in Luhansk Oblast, 2,481 in Donetsk Oblast, 248 in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 96 in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 255 in Kharkiv Oblast, and 210 in Sumy Oblast.

This shows that the Russian MoD inflated its claimed progress by 36% in Luhansk Oblast, 33% in Donetsk Oblast, 5% in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 83% in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 112% in Kharkiv Oblast, and 6% in Sumy Oblast, ISW says.

Kremlin uses false data to shape foreign perception

ISW noted that the Russian MoD routinely exaggerates its gains to influence Western perception of Russian capabilities and chances of victory.

On 30 August, Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had taken 3,500 square kilometers and 149 settlements since March 2025. ISW reported at the time that real gains were closer to 2,346 square kilometers since 1 March.

ISW said the Kremlin relies on large volumes of false quantitative data to create an illusion of fast-paced success, while in reality Russian advances remain slow and limited.

Moscow also reportedly uses staged videos showing small groups of soldiers raising flags in certain settlements to falsely claim full control. ISW assessed that these are infiltration missions into areas where Russian forces cannot hold lasting positions.

“The Kremlin is attempting to convince the West that Russia will inevitably achieve its original war goals on the battlefield in order to force Ukraine and its partners into conceding to Russian demands,” ISW wrote.