The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 17 April that Russian officials are increasing their threatening rhetoric toward European nations in what appears to be a calculated effort to prevent support for Ukraine.
According to the ISW, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on 17 April that Russia would consider any missile strike using German Taurus missiles against Russian territory as “Germany’s direct participation in the war in Ukraine.”
Zakharova extended similar threats to Estonia, mirroring recent statements by Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Head Sergey Naryshkin. The ISW reported that Naryshkin had previously warned that Poland and the Baltic States would be “the first to suffer” if “NATO aggression” were directed against Russia or Belarus.
“The Kremlin has repeatedly used similar threats against Western states sending military aid to Ukraine,” the ISW reported.
According to the report, this is part of “Russia’s wider reflexive control campaign to influence Western decision-making and deter aid to Kyiv.”
The ISW pointed out that these recent threats closely resemble previous warnings Russia made against the United States regarding Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory.
According to the analysis, Moscow likely aims to portray European defensive efforts, both for Ukraine and Europe itself, as provocative actions. The ISW reported that the goal appears to be pushing European nations into “self-deterring from providing Ukraine with additional military support and bolstering European defensive capabilities.”
These escalating verbal threats come as European nations consider expanding their military assistance to Ukraine and strengthening their own defense postures in response to Russian aggression.
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