Some 500,000 Ukrainians migranted abroad in 2024, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reports in its January 2025 Inflation Report.
Ukraine’s population was approximately 41.1 million before Russian full-scale invasion in 2022, according to the State Statistics Service. This number does not include Russian occupied territories in 2014 such as Crimea and parts of Donbas. After 24 February 2022, around 20.7 million people left Ukraine. As of January 2025, an estimated 29 million people remained in Ukraine, many of whom returned after the initial wave of emigration.
Security risks, constant shelling, and electricity shortages still drive Ukrainians to leave the country, the NBU reported.
The bank said another 200,000 people will leave Ukraine in 2025. A reversal of this trend could start in 2026 with 200,000 people returning. This number may increase to 500,000 returnees in 2027.
“Mass and rapid return of migrants under the status quo appears unlikely,” the NBU notes in its report. The bank points to increasing adaptation of Ukrainians abroad.
This slow return creates problems for Ukraine’s economy. According to the report, labor shortages will persist during the forecast period. This will reportedly maintain labor market imbalances and lead to wage growth exceeding productivity in some sectors, increasing inflationary pressure.
The UN Refugee Agency counted 6.814 million Ukrainian refugees worldwide as of 16 December 2024. This number grew by 370,000 people in less than a year.
In early 2025, Ukraine initiated a pilot project aimed at facilitating the return of Ukrainians who have fled abroad due to the war. Oleksandr Kamyshyn, an advisor to the President of Ukraine, announced the initiative during the 7th German-Ukrainian Business Forum in Berlin.
Chernyshov said that returns will be voluntary. “We will not use coercive measures to bring Ukrainians back,” he added.
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