Russia’s Gazprom started cutting gas flow through Ukraine on 31 December, dropping daily supplies to 37.2 million cubic meters from 42.4 million, according to the company’s market notifications seen by Reuters. Ukraine’s gas grid operator confirmed that the energy giant has not booked any transit capacity for 1 January.

The gas deal between Russia and Ukraine ends on 31 December 2024. Ukraine says it won’t let Russian gas flow through its pipes after that, and talks for a new deal have failed. “A new contract will be impossible to conclude before 1 January 2025,” Putin said.

Market data shows Ukraine will lose $800 million yearly in transit fees, while Gazprom could lose $5 billion in gas sales. But Europe has adapted: Slovakia and Austria have found new gas suppliers, while Hungary will still get Russian gas through TurkStream, according to regulatory filings.

Experts say the change won’t significantly impact Europe’s gas market, though Moldova might struggle to find new supplies. The European Union says it’s prepared for the switch, having spent two years finding alternatives to Russian gas since the Ukraine war began in 2022.

This marks the end of Russia’s oldest gas route to Europe, which first ran into trouble when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

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