Today, there are interesting updates from Serbia. Here, an explosion rocked the biggest Serbian munitions factory just a day after the Russian Foreign Intelligence published a sharp report accusing Serbia of sending weapons to Ukraine.
What follows may be a decision that will shape Serbia’s future and could lead to a change in course or even greater isolation, leaving Russia wary of losing its foothold in the western Balkans. In what appears to be a rapidly escalating confrontation, Russia may be losing its long-standing ally in Europe.
Just recently, a powerful explosion rocked the Krusik munitions factory in Valjevo, Serbia. The blast occurred early in the morning, injuring seven employees who were rushed to a local hospital. Krusik is a state-owned defense manufacturer whose products, including 120-millimeter mortar shells and Grad G-2000 rockets, have been captured on video in use by Ukrainian forces on the battlefield.
Russia alleges arms shipments to Ukraine, cites Krusik
This event marked more than just an industrial accident; it signaled a turning point in the relationship between Moscow and Belgrade. The explosion came less than 24 hours after a blunt announcement by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, accusing Serbian companies of secretly supplying Ukraine with vast amounts of artillery and small arms ammunition. According to Russian intelligence, Serbia has used falsified end-user certificates and routed the deliveries through intermediaries in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria.
The Russian statement sharply criticized Belgrade for undermining traditionally close ties and accused it of profiting from the blood of brotherly peoples. The timing of the statement and the Krusik explosion, separated by mere hours, strongly suggests that this was not a coincidence, but a coordinated act of sabotage meant to punish and intimidate.
Vucic balances Russia ties with EU aspirations
Serbian-Russian relations have been deteriorating since the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine. While the Serbian public remains largely pro-Russian, and Belgrade maintains energy dependence on Moscow, President Aleksandar Vucic has attempted to walk a diplomatic tightrope.
Serbia formally claims neutrality and continues to express a desire to join the European Union. However, Vucic’s recent trip to Moscow for the 9 May Victory Day parade angered EU leaders, with officials, including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, voicing strong disapproval. At the same time, European diplomats have intensified visits to Belgrade, increasing the pressure on Serbia to choose a side. Serbia’s vague positions on regional flashpoints, including Republika Srpska and Kosovo, have only added to Russia’s frustration.
Serbian ammunition keeps surfacing in Ukraine
Against this tense backdrop, Russia’s release of the weapons shipment accusation appears calculated. For years, it has been an open secret that Serbian ammunition has found its way to Ukraine, with the first reports originating not even a month after the initial Russian invasion. Reports continue to emerge, as in February 3,500 M-21 rockets allegedly appeared in Ukraine, while recently uncovered 120mm mortar rounds bore markings from the same Krusik factory that experienced the explosion.
Serbian officials have consistently denied direct sales, insisting the weapons are sold to authorized third parties. President Vucic noted that everyone must understand that sooner or later, Serbian ammunition can end up on any battlefield.
EU path tempts Serbia as Russian patience runs thin
Yet the situation may now be changing. If Serbia were to formally sever its military ties with Russia and align fully with the EU, it could open new economic and political doors. Direct arms sales to Ukraine could boost Serbia’s economy and help advance its stalled EU accession process. But doing so would come at a cost. Serbia has been a key Russian foothold in the Balkans for decades. Russia has invested heavily, not just in energy and arms, but in narratives, influence operations, and regional destabilization potential.
Should Belgrade pivot decisively westward, Russia will almost certainly retaliate by ramping up nationalistic tensions in Serbia against Kosovo or Bosnia, threatening instability throughout the Western Balkans.
Sabotage signals warning as Serbia reaches a crossroads
Overall, what started as a denunciation from Russia has now escalated into a physical act of violence with clear strategic implications. The sabotage of the Krusik factory is not just a warning, it is a message written in fire and shrapnel.
Serbia is now at a crossroads. It must decide whether to yield to Russian pressure and bury its arms trade with Ukraine or to seek refuge in European unity, even at the risk of provoking Moscow’s wrath. What comes next may determine not only Serbia’s future but the security balance in the Balkans.
In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.