The administration of US President Donald Trump cannot simply order Ukraine to lay down its arms. If Trump forces Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into a settlement that sharply contradicts Ukraine’s preferences, it risks collapsing shortly after being signed, Foreign Policy analysis says.

Foreign Policy’s experts add that the American leader has set his peace effort on a failing course as Washington seeks to end the war on its and Russia’s terms, regardless of what Ukrainians think.

“Trump’s strategy to sideline Ukraine in peace negotiations with Russia not only violates basic international norms of diplomacy but is also strategically mistaken. The views of the Ukrainian people are also critical for the moral and legal legitimacy of any negotiated settlement. After all, it is Ukrainians who are fighting to defend their country and who are dying on the battlefield,” the says.

However, Trump’s current rapprochement with Moscow is unlikely to produce a settlement acceptable to the Ukrainians.

The US President has adopted Russian narratives about the war and prematurely endorsed Moscow’s demands before any negotiations have even taken place—suggesting that a US-brokered deal would be one-sided in favor of the Kremlin.

For example, he has already ruled out Ukraine’s return to its pre-2014 borders and its NATO membership. The US has also twice sided with Russia at the UN on 24 February, the third anniversary of Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine.

At the same time, Foreign Affairs stresses that the Trump administration must understand that ignoring Ukrainians’ preferences could have serious strategic costs for the US.

The Ukrainians are open enough to compromise that Trump could reach some sort of agreement—or at least make progress toward one—by involving Ukraine’s leadership in negotiations and addressing their concerns.

“But so far, Trump has treated Zelensky as a secondary player, at best. In doing so, he has set his peace effort on a failing course. Without Zelenskyy’s input, a deal is more likely to cross Ukrainian redlines, with the result that Ukraine and its people will reject it and opt to fight on no matter what Washington says,” the report reads.

Moreover, the experts say that if Trump forces Zelenskyy to accept a US-Russia deal, he is likely to lose the Ukrainians’ trust, and the country will go to elections.

“The country will eventually go to the polls and might then select a new leader prepared to openly resist the forced deal. Although Ukrainian elections are one of Putin and Trump’s central demands, they might be Ukrainians’ best insurance against their leader bowing to an imposed settlement,” the experts suggest.

The strength and resilience of Ukrainians’ determination to continue the fight suggest that a forced peace on Russian terms could provoke mass resistance and a prolonged, exhausting insurgency.

This continued resistance would undoubtedly disappoint Trump, who during the presidential campaign claimed he could end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours.” It could also disappoint Western analysts, who have argued that Ukraine would have no choice but to accept a deal.

But Ukrainians understand better than any analysts the cost of Russian influence over their country, adds the report.

“It means that a deal in which Ukrainians ‘may be Russian someday’ will not, in fact, end the war,” the experts conclude.

Related:

• Rubio sets goal for “next” talks: defining war exit conditions for Russia, Ukraine
• Trump says he may visit Moscow, not on 9 May but “within weeks”
• ISW: Putin remains committed to war, Kremlin rejects ceasefire without Ukraine’s full capitulation
• Trump refused to call Putin a dictator: “I don’t use those words lightly”
• Zelenskyy: I’m ready to step down as president for peace or in return for NATO membership
• Russian advances would take 83 years to capture remaining Ukraine, ISW says in its Ukraine Fact Sheet