The Financial Times has published its influential annual forecast for 2025. It predicts that a peace deal will finally end Russia’s war against Ukraine, though it would require significant US pressure on Moscow.

“The US president will have to threaten tougher sanctions and escalate American support to Kyiv to persuade Moscow to engage seriously in talks,” the publication states (subscription is needed).

The forecast suggests Ukraine might agree to a deal where Russia keeps control of currently occupied areas in practice but not legally, with some land exchanges possible. This would come with security promises from Europe backed by the US. While Ukraine’s path to NATO membership won’t be immediately blocked under Trump, the process will likely be put on hold.

On the economic front, Trump’s return to the White House could spark new trade tensions. The publication expects him to place new tariffs of 10% or more on imports, especially from China and possibly from Mexico and Canada. Bitcoin could see a major rise to $200,000, helped by support from the new US administration.

AI is expected to advance in technology with new tools that can handle everyday tasks automatically. However, electric car sales are predicted to stay under 25% of global sales as interest drops outside China.

Looking back at their 2024 predictions, the Financial Times correctly forecast that the US and EU would keep supporting Ukraine and that the Israel-Hamas war wouldn’t spread across the region. However, they had incorrectly anticipated Trump would not win the presidency.

Read more:

• Euromaidan Press 2024: a year of breaking barriers
• The pale blue dot: Carter, Sagan, and a peace vision for Ukraine in 2025
• ISW: Russia’s Lavrov reiterates demand for Ukraine to surrender sovereignty