If US military aid to Ukraine is ultimately canceled, European countries will need to allocate an additional $100 billion to $350 billion to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces and strengthen their own defense industries, says François Heisbourg, a senior adviser on European affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and a special adviser at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research.
According to Heisbourg, the main challenge in this scenario is Europe’s limited production capacity. Even if there is political will to fully replace US aid to Ukraine, European countries simply lack the industrial capability to manufacture the same volume of weapons that the US has been supplying to Ukraine.
However, the situation is not as critical as it may initially seem. Since the beginning of Russia’s all-out war, the US has provided Ukraine with a total of $60 billion in military aid, while European countries have contributed €40 billion. This gap, while significant, is not catastrophic, though Europe would still need to ramp up arms production substantially.
Nevertheless, even in the most optimistic scenario—where US aid continues and the war ends quickly with a ceasefire—Heisbourg argues that Europe still needs to scale up its weapons production.
Commenting on the prospect of deploying European peacekeepers to Ukraine, Heisbourg dismissed earlier media assessments suggesting that 30,000 European troops would be sufficient to deter Russia. He pointed out that stabilizing the tiny country of Bosnia required 50,000 peacekeepers, while Kosovo needed 39,000.
“In Ukraine, a country many times larger, the line of contact would extend some 1,000 km, necessitating a force strength far bigger than those deployed in the Balkans, even accounting for the contribution of the large battle-hardened Ukrainian army,” the expert said.
Earlier, the reports revealed that the European Union authorities were negotiating an additional military aid package worth €20 billion for Ukraine.
The aid will reportedly include artillery ammunition, air defense systems, deep-precision strike missiles, drones, and other weaponry. The aid will also be aimed at strengthening Ukrainian military brigades.
EU to negotiate € 20 billion aid package for Kyiv as US support on hold
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