Russia suffering heavy losses for minor gains in Ukraine as summer offensive grinds on, ISW reports. The Institute for the Study of War says Moscow is throwing troops into battle for minimal territorial returns, citing The Economist’s data.
Russia suffering heavy losses for minor gains
Russia is suffering heavy losses for minor gains, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). In its 10 July assessment, ISW said Russian forces continue to burn through manpower at “staggeringly high” rates for “disproportionately small gains.”
Since the launch of Russia’s Summer 2025 offensive on 1 May, The Economist estimated about 31,000 Russian troops have been killed. In that time, Russia gained only 0.038 square kilometers — about nine acres — for each killed soldier.
Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa said that as of 4 June, Russia was losing around 167 killed or wounded troops per square kilometer of advance — or just 1.45 acres per casualty.
Offensive pace unlikely to hold
ISW reported that Russian forces captured 498.53 square kilometers in May and 466.71 in June, averaging 15.8 square kilometers per day. The Economist found a similar daily rate — about the size of Los Angeles International Airport.
BBC identifies 523 foreign mercenaries killed fighting for Russia in Ukraine — from 28 countries
At that pace, The Economist estimated it would take 89 years for Russia to seize all of Ukraine. Capturing the remainder of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts — which Russia illegally claims — would take until February 2028.
ISW noted the pace is unusually fast compared to earlier phases of the war but stressed it is unlikely to continue. Gains have fluctuated based on weather, terrain, and the scale of operations.
Autumn likely to slow Russia’s push
ISW said Russian advances will likely slow again as autumn rains return. Mud and poor conditions have repeatedly hindered maneuverability during earlier phases of the war.
Despite the recent surge, Russia suffering heavy losses for minor gains remains the core dynamic of this campaign. ISW’s analysis, supported by The Economist’s casualty estimates, shows a war strategy trading lives for inches.