Exclusives

RUSI: Europe losing defense production race to Russia, Ukraine could turn tide. European defense production has failed to meet targets despite significant funding. But Ukraine’s ability to manufacture weapons at a fraction of Western costs presents a strategic opportunity.

Military

Ukrainian forces struck 77,000 Russian targets with drones in March, Syrskyi reports. This is 10% more than in February – Ukraine continues ramping up drone capabilities

Frontline report: Russia breaks energy ceasefire after staged sabotage while Ukraine retaliates striking military airbases. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy points to Russian strikes as evidence of Moscow’s disinterest in peace negotiations, while the Kremlin claims Ukraine violated the agreement first, however, incident evidence suggests it was self-inflicted.

Drones hit Russia’s sole fiber optic plant, disrupting military drone production. On the same night, drones also targeted an explosives manufacturing plant in Russia, causing fire.

As of 2 APR 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 918180 (+1410)
    • Tanks: 10515 (+10)
    • APV: 21880 (+24)
    • Artillery systems: 25576 (+24)
    • MLRS: 1347
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 1123
    • Aircraft: 370
    • Helicopters: 335
    • UAV: 31505 (+43)
    • Cruise missiles : 3123
    • Warships/boats: 28
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 42687 (+41)

Intelligence and technology

Russian territorial gains in Ukraine plummet in early 2025, UK intel & Deep State say. Apparently, General Drapatyi’s appointment as head of the Khortytsia operational group had a role

International

“Hands off”: Thousands gather across US and Europe to protest against Trump, Musk. More than 1,200 coordinated demonstrations took place across all 50 US states and in cities abroad on 5 April, as tens of thousands protested President Trump’s domestic policies and executive orders.

“Weakness never ended wars”: Zelensky demands real pressure on Russia over missile attack. “Empty talk” will not force Russia to stop the war, Zelenskyy said, stressing that Russia must be named as the perpetrator of the strike that killed 18 in his hometown

Putin sends Dmitriev to sell sanctions-relief deception to American audiences, ISW warns. The investment envoy tries to distract the Trump administration from the Kremlin’s intransigence regarding Ukraine

Zelenskyy criticizes US Embassy for “weak” response to Russian missile strike that killed nine children. Ambassador Brink’s statement that “this is why the war must end” without naming Russia as the aggressor prompted the Ukrainian President to argue that ending the war requires “not being afraid to pressure the one who continues this war.”

“When time is right.” Macron to lead Europe’s Putin talks on Ukraine, The Telegraph reveals. In 2022, the French President kept diplomatic channels open with Moscow longer than other leaders, cutting ties only when it became clear Putin wouldn’t end the invasion.

Humanitarian and social impact

OSINT: If Russia’s strike was “precision,” they aimed to kill 9 kids in Zelenskyy’s hometown. Russians claim they targeted a restaurant in Kryvyi Rih with military inside, but geolocation data shows civilian casualties up to 148 meters away.

Ukrainian refugees in US received erroneous deportation threats. The Trump administration falsely ordered Ukrainian refugees residing under humanitarian parole to leave the US within seven days, causing significant distress among vulnerable immigrants who fled the war.

“I’m begging you, save my son”: father screams in despair as Russian missile kills 9 kids in Ukraine. The number of killed after the Russian 4 April missile strike on a residential area in Kryvyi Rih rose to 19 people, including 9 children. Later that night, the Russians also launched drones at Kryvyi Rih, killing one more person.

Political and legal developments

FT: Kyiv deploys lie detectors in hunt for source of “strange” US minerals deal leak. The leaked deal was lambasted by senior officials as extremely disadvantageous to Ukraine

Read the daily review for Friday Apr 04 2025 here