According to a US intelligence assessment that contradicts US President Donald Trump’s promises of a swift resolution to the three-year war, both Russia and Ukraine may find greater incentives to continue fighting rather than rushing toward a comprehensive settlement, Bloomberg has reported.
Ukraine and US delegations were engaged in talks in Saudi Arabia the day after Washington representatives held negotiations with Moscow. The US and Russia have agreed on safe navigation in the Black Sea. After the meeting, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that Kyiv would consider any movement of Russian military vessels beyond the eastern part of the Black Sea a violation of this agreement.
The intelligence assessment was presented on 25 March during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the annual Worldwide Threat Assessment report, where senior intelligence officials, including Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, testified.
The report suggests that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin sees “positive battlefield trends” that allow him to exercise strategic patience. For Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality without strong security guarantees from the West could trigger domestic backlash and future risks.
However, both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appear to recognize the dangers of a prolonged war. The report warns that an extended fighting could cripple Russia’s economy and heighten the risk of an “undesired escalation with the West,” while Zelenskyy likely understands that continued Western aid remains uncertain.
Moscow maintains battlefield momentum, with the war of attrition playing to Russia’s military advantage, which also “will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any US or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow.”
The US intelligence community also continues to assess the risk of nuclear escalation by Putin.
“Russia’s inability to achieve quick and decisive battlefield wins, coupled with Ukrainian strikes within Russia, continues to drive concerns that Putin might use nuclear weapons,” the assessment states.
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