Bloomberg reported on 6 March that any potential minerals deal between the US and Ukraine will not address the key obstacle to achieving a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The central issue remains: “How can third-party guarantors credibly assure the security of Ukraine after an armistice?”

The article emphasizes that credibility is the crucial factor in establishing effective security guarantees. It cites Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling’s Cold War analysis of deterrence strategies, particularly the concept of “tripwire forces.”

“What can 7,000 American troops do, or 12,000 Allied troops?” Schelling asked. “Bluntly, they can die. They can die heroically, dramatically, and in a manner that guarantees that the action cannot stop there.”

According to Bloomberg, successful deterrence requires two conditions. The country providing the tripwire force must be committed to responding if their troops are harmed. That country must also be capable of defeating the aggressor.

The article points to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s frustration with the Trump administration’s approach. During a recent meeting in the Oval Office, Zelenskyy attempted to emphasize the need for credible security guarantees backed by the United States, providing examples of previous broken security agreements.

In 1994, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees from the US, UK, and Russia that proved “worthless.” Additional agreements after Russia’s 2014 actions in Crimea and Donbas now appear “cynically vacuous.”

“The security guarantee that Zelenskyy understandably wants, and Putin fears, is Ukraine’s accession to NATO,” reports Bloomberg.

President Trump has already removed this option before negotiations have begun. Trump has also ruled out American troops on the ground.

European NATO allies are now discussing establishing a tripwire without American support. However, Bloomberg reports this approach faces the “vexed twin question of capability and credibility.”

Bloomberg reported that no guarantee can be credible without United States involvement, yet “the US under Trump is moving away from such a commitment.”

During the Oval Office meeting, Trump reportedly told Zelenskyy: “I’m not worried about security. I’m worried about getting the deal done.” Bloomberg observes that such statements make it difficult for Zelenskyy to trust or enter peace talks.

Read also:

• US pushes Ukraine toward capitulation as Trump and Putin find common ground, expert says
• European leaders meet for emergency talks on Ukraine amid Trump’s pivot to Russia
• The peace trap: Five ways Putin wins if Ukraine freezes the war