BBC Verify reports that Ukraine’s drone strikes have hit 21 of Russia’s 38 large oil refineries since January, a number already 48% higher than the entire total for 2024. Its analysis of Russian media and verified footage shows the attacks reached record levels in August and remained high in September, with impacts visible in fuel availability and rising prices.

The findings were released on 2 October and do not account for today’s strikes on the Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Russia's Orenburg Oblast, located at the geographical border of Europe and Asia, 1,400km from the war zone.

Record refinery strikes mapped by BBC Verify

Drone strikes on Russian oil refineries surged to unprecedented levels this summer. In August alone, 14 refineries were targeted, followed by eight more in September, according to BBC. This escalation came after a short lull during which US President Donald Trump attempted to broker a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.

Ukraine’s security service SBU struck refineries both near the front and deep inside Russia. In late September, the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat oil refinery in Bashkortostan was successfully hit twice. Satellite images confirmed smoke billowing from the facility, more than 1,100km from Ukraine’s border.

The analysis also shows Kyiv focusing on some of Russia’s most lucrative plants. A refinery near Volgograd was targeted six times this year, with an August strike forcing a one-month shutdown. The Ryazan refinery near Moscow, capable of producing 340,000 barrels per day, has been hit five times since January.

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BBC Verify cites Russia's exiled opposition politician and former deputy energy minister Vladimir Milov, who said Ukraine appears to target two types of facilities: large refineries crucial to civilian supply and plants closer to the border used to support Russian troops in Ukraine. Ukraine’s general staff has previously claimed that refineries in Samara and Saratov were part of military logistics operations. Two of the three plants in Samara oblast have been taken offline in recent weeks.

Fuel crisis confirmed by videos

BBC Verify verified videos showing long queues at petrol stations in Russia’s far east and on highways between St. Petersburg and Moscow. Independent petrol stations in Siberia have suspended operations, with one manager comparing the situation to post-Soviet hyperinflation in 1993–1994. In occupied Crimea, Kremlin-installed officials have introduced gasoline rationing.

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While Moscow and Krasnodar oblast — the capital city and the home to several refineries — remain largely unaffected, the shortages have widened in other parts of Russia. Retail petrol prices have risen sharply, while wholesale prices have climbed by 40% since January.

The Kremlin insists the situation is under control. The Russian business newspaper Kommersant attributed the shortfall to “unscheduled refinery shutdowns.” Statistics on gasoline production were classified in May 2024 amid an earlier spate of attacks, making it harder to measure the impact.

BBC Verify findings on Russia’s oil revenues

BBC Verify’s analysis shows at least 10 refineries forced to fully or partially suspend operations since August. Reuters reported that on certain days, national production of petrol and diesel dropped by as much as 20%. Yet Bloomberg reported at the end of September that Russia’s crude oil exports had reached a record high, highlighting how unrefined oil remains largely unaffected.

Ex-British army officer and Sibylline CEO Justin Crump told BBC Verify that Ukraine’s focus on oil and gas is now a “core campaign” driven by intelligence assessments of what will hurt Russia the most.