Russia launched a massive onslaught on Avdiivka on 10 October 2023. After seven weeks of heavy fighting, the Russians made minor territorial gains to the south, north, and east of the Ukrainian stronghold. Still, the Russian army has failed to cut off the key supply route to Avdiivka and encircle the city.
Tactically, capturing Avdiivka allows the Russian army to control vital roads and the railway to Donetsk, a key logistics hub in eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia since 2014. Avdiivka is a gateway to Donetsk, which is less than ten kilometers to the south.
Although the Russian army forced Ukrainians to lose ground in some areas around Avdiivka, it paid a huge price to advance and suffered heavy losses. Russia is still far from making Avdiivka untenable for Ukraine. However, the situation is dynamic, and things can change quickly.
Ukrainian wall
Once a city of 32,000 people, Avdiivka has become a post-apocalyptic pile of ruins after Russia launched an all-out war against Ukraine. Most residents had already left the city, fleeing indiscriminate Russian shelling. Now, less than 2,000 civilians stay in the city that the Russian army continues to destroy with airstrikes and artillery fire.
Currently, Avdiivka is surrounded by Russian forces from the east, southwest, and northeast. However, the critical supply routes west of the city are under Ukrainian control.
The Russian onslaught in the Avdiivka sector is the largest offensive of the Russian army in 2023. According to the spokesman for the Tavria operational group of forces of the Ukrainian Army, Oleksandr Stupun, Russia deployed up to 40,000 troops to the Avdiivka sector in October.
The Ukrainians were well prepared for such a development. All critical strategic positions in and around Avdiivka are cast in reinforced concrete. An extensive network of fortifications is connected by passages, trenches, and underground tunnels that allow Ukrainian troops to survive intensive artillery shelling. All approaches to the city from the Russian-occupied territories are packed with anti-tank and anti-personnel mines.
The Russian plan to encircle and occupy Avdiivka in a stunning blitzkrieg of mechanized brigades supported by aviation and artillery did not work. The Russians failed to cut off a key Ukrainian supply route (highway 0542) west of Avdiivka and capture the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, a gateway to the city from the northeast. Without control over the coke plant, the Russians are unlikely to be able to undermine the stability of the Avdiivka’s defenses. After weeks of grueling fighting, this heavily fortified area remains under full Ukrainian control.
In the initial stages of the Avdiivka offensive in October, Russia tried to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenders with continuous artillery shelling and airstrikes, attacking with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Faced with a wall of Ukrainian minefields, artillery fire, and kamikaze drones, the Russian military command changed tactics. The Russian army started to rely more on infantry-led attacks, the so-called “meat assaults.”
Unlike the first weeks of the Avdiivka offensive, Russia has stopped using tanks and armored vehicles en masse to break through Ukrainian defenses, which indirectly confirms the huge Russian losses.
According to OSINT analyst Naalsio, who documents Ukrainian and Russian military equipment losses based on photo and video footage, Russia lost 265 pieces of military equipment in the Avdiivka sector between 9 October and 24 November.
Ukraine lost 20 units of equipment while defending Avdiivka.
Despite heavy losses, Russia still has reserves to continue the Avdiivka offensive. A Russian instructor with a call sign Philologist reportedly serving in the Donetsk Oblast (eastern Ukraine) named the effective use of cluster munitions and FPV kamikaze drones by the Ukrainian Armed Forces among the main problems Russian troops have to face during the Avdiivka offensive operation.
He noted that the Ukrainians are skillfully using a combination of FPV kamikaze drones and cluster munitions to stop the advance of Russian troops near Avdiivka. The cluster munitions drive Russian assault infantry into deep cover, limiting the ability to repel Ukrainian counterattacks.
Once reconnaissance drones detect Russian infantrymen sheltering from cluster munitions among the rubble in urban areas, Ukrainian artillery begins striking Russian hideouts, pushing enemy troops out of them and into the open. When Russian troops emerge from their hiding places, the Ukrainians fire cluster munitions at them.
Thus, cluster munitions allow the Ukrainians to knock out Russian infantry with relatively little ammunition consumption. Cluster munitions cover large areas with a huge mass of destructive elements flying at convenient angles, inflicting heavy casualties on Russian forces.
Despite huge losses, however, the relentless waves of “meat assaults” allowed Russia to push Ukrainian troops out of a crucial industrial area and occupy a commanding height southeast of Avdiivka last week.
Recent developments
Over the past few weeks, Russian forces have gained a foothold in the eastern outskirts of Stepove, northeast of Avdiivka. The Russians are using considerable manpower advantages to expand their zone of control in this area.
The capture of Stepove would allow the Russian army to come closer to the critically important H0542 highway and disrupt the logistics of the Avdiivka garrison by pounding this supply route with mortar fire.
Heavy fighting in Stepove continues. The 110th Brigade of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, responsible for the defense of this area, repels all Russian attacks.
On the southern flank of Avdiivka, the Russians are constantly trying to conduct assaults from four directions (southeast, east, south, and southwest) and occupy the village of Sievierne to approach the H0542 highway from another side. However, the Russians cannot bypass or break through the Ukrainian defenses. The 59th Brigade of Ukraine’s Armed Forces keeps holding the line in this area.
After the first two massive waves of attacks on the northern and southern flanks of Ukrainian defense in the Avdiivka sector yielded no success for the Russian army, the Russian command decided to switch focus to the southeastern vicinities of Avdiivka.
Last week, Russian forces managed to gain a foothold in the ravaged industrial zone. Ukrainian troops withdrew and allowed Russians to consolidate their positions in this area.
The industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka is the first line of defense of the Ukrainian garrison. The city and the industrial site are separated by a suburban area, which is now in the gray zone. To begin street fighting in Avdiivka itself, the Russians have to overcome an open field and wade through vast minefields under relentless Ukrainian artillery fire.
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