A ceasefire in Ukraine would sharply raise security threats to the Baltic States as Russia advances plans to rearm and redeploy troops to NATO’s northeastern flank, according to defense ministers, Bloomberg reports.

Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur told the Financial Times:

“We all understand that when the war in Ukraine will be stopped, Russia will redistribute its forces very quickly. That means also the threat level will increase significantly very quickly.“

Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė echoed these concerns while in the UK earlier this week.

“Let’s not have any illusions. Let’s not lie to ourselves that Russia is going to be done after Ukraine,” she said, according to the FT. “Russia will use this time following a ceasefire to speed up its military capabilities. They already have a huge, battlefield-trained army, which is going to get even bigger.”

The Trump administration has been leading separate talks with Russia and Ukraine, though a full ceasefire remains elusive. While Kyiv has agreed to an immediate cessation of hostilities in the Black Sea and a US-backed 30-day ceasefire, Moscow has only pledged to pause attacks on energy infrastructure, tying Black Sea compliance to relief from Western sanctions.

Baltic ministers warn that any pause in fighting would allow Russia to advance its 2022 plan to raise a 1.5 million-strong army and add a new army corps in the north, potentially doubling troop numbers near Finland and the Baltics. Pevkur estimates that of the 600,000 Russian troops in Ukraine, about 300,000 could be redeployed northward.

The Baltic States are especially concerned about the upcoming large-scale Russian military exercise, Zapad, set to take place near their borders in Russia and Belarus this autumn. The FT reports that these drills, held every four years, simulate conflict with NATO countries and involve tens of thousands of troops, tanks, aircraft, and artillery.

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