On 6 August 2024, Ukraine launched a daring cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, shocking both the West and Russia. No longer solely on the defensive, Ukraine proved its ability to strike beyond its borders, disrupting Russian supply lines and forcing the Kremlin to divert resources away from other frontlines.

In September 2024, President Zelenskyy announced that the Kursk region diverted 40,000 Russian troops from the Ukrainian frontline. In the ensuing month, the offensive wiped out 16,000 Russian soldiers and destroyed 1,000 pieces of equipment. It also led to nearly 900 POWs being captured, pushing Moscow to initiate prisoner swaps for the first time since the war’s start that resulted in three major exchanges, the highest frequency since 2022.

“We created a buffer zone in the Kursk region, destroying the enemy’s plan to launch a new offensive on Sumy and Kharkiv. This operation also eased the pressure on some areas of the front,” said Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief.

Ukraine’s surprise move into the region pivotal foe Russian national pride, tied to the 1943 Kursk battle that shifted World War II in the Soviet Union’s favor, has also reshaped stalled global views on Ukraine’s war capabilities. Polling showed that, for the first time since Kyiv’s failed counteroffensive ending in November 2023, a majority of Americans believed Ukraine was winning.

However, holding Kursk has come at a steep cost for Kyiv. While Ukraine’s August offensive secured 1,200 square kilometers (463 square miles) in Kursk Oblast, relentless Russian counterattacks have since reclaimed two-thirds of that ground.

They also exposed Ukraine’s struggle to press offensives while defending multiple fronts, amid Russia’s renewed assault in crucial directions, with Pokrovsk in the country’s east being the most recent target.

The question of Kursk became even more pressing during the last weeks when Trump’s push for ending the war made the Kursk card Ukraine’s key leverage into the looming peace talks, which the US administration seems determined to conduct on Russia’s terms.

“We will exchange one territory for another,” Zelenskyy said, suggesting Kyiv might yield part of the Kursk region, which it has held since its August incursion.

While Ukraine’s military and political leadership sees the Kursk operation as a strategic win, it’s sparked division among frontline soldiers, who bear the brutal cost of holding territory up close.

“Hope for future negotiations”

Like many Ukrainian soldiers, Hryhorii, known by his callsign “Hohi” and serving in the 105th Territorial Defense Brigade, believes Kursk must be held with an eye on future negotiations. However, he also emphasizes the steep human cost of the operation, which grows ever higher as Western support wanes.

“The fighting there is extremely intense, and more high-quality weapons are needed — promised but not delivered,” he says.

When asked if holding Kursk was worth the cost, Hori answered that it likely was, given that Ukrainian troops drew enemy forces away from other critical fronts and dealt a major blow to Russia’s reputation — which, however, came “at the cost of the lives and health of [Ukraine’s] best soldiers.”

Hryhorii, who is currently fighting on the Kharkiv front near Kursk, said that despite reports of ammunition shortages in some sectors, Russian forces show no signs of running low on shells.

“The mortar and small arms fire don’t stop — they hit us with something every day,” he says.

He also highlighted the increasing use of drones for both reconnaissance and strikes.

“In the past few months, their drones have become much more active — dropping explosives, scouting our positions, and using kamikaze strikes,” Hryhorii explained. “They’re making it harder to move without being seen or hit.”

He mentions that besides ramping up drone warfare, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have also stepped up operations, flooding Ukraine’s defenses with mines. They scatter anti-personnel mines like POMs and Pelyustkas, which become deadly under snow, and lay anti-tank mines, making movement even more hazardous.

Yurii, with callsign “Mario,” who served as an anti-tank specialist in an artillery brigade during 2014-2015 and is now with the 23rd Mechanized Brigade, also claims holding Kursk is critical for morale, as Ukrainian forces remain largely on the defensive elsewhere and continue to lose ground.

“We’re laying mines and trying to hold the line. We have very few infantry, so we’re relying heavily on drones and artillery,” he says.

At the same time, the serviceman, currently operating near Kurakhove, south of Pokrovsk, also stresses the increasing cost of the Kursk operation considering the challenging situation in Ukraine’s east — a view shared by Ihor (“Rogue”), a drone pilot from the nearby 23rd Mechanized Brigade.

“I think Kursk is very important because how can Putin claim victories when we have taken a piece of Russia? In negotiations, this can give us significant leverage,” Ihor says.

However, he also admits that holding Ukraine’s positions in Kursk comes at the cost of the worsening situation in other directions where Russians push, including Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast, where his battalion is currently deployed.

“It’s very tough — the last assault involved 37 pieces of enemy equipment in a single day,” Ihor says. “Little by little, the neighboring brigades are taking losses.”

“Right now, it simplifies our defense, as the Russians are throwing a lot of forces at Kursk, preventing them from focusing on storming our positions elsewhere,” he adds.

Looking ahead to potential territorial exchanges, he hopes Ukraine’s footing in Kursk can be exchanged on Zaporizhzhia NPP in Ukraine’s south, an object of Russia’s repeated nuclear blackmail. However, he believes Russia will still hold on to the piece of land they have in Kharkiv Oblast neighboring Kursk, keeping the risk of Russia’s renewed assault in this direct area high.

“We need our people and land back”

Dmytro from the 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems, known by his callsign “Liber,” is much less enthusiastic about the price of Kursk.

“What we need are our people and our land back. A full POW exchange for Kursk would be widely popular in Ukraine. Keeping that territory doesn’t make economic sense — we’re already struggling to support what we have,” he says.

Andrii (“Melnyk”) of the 109th Territorial Defense Brigade also points out that Kursk serves as a key bargaining chip in negotiations — both for prisoner exchanges and for keeping Russian forces tied down in Donbas.

“The more of Kursk that we hold, the more we will have to trade,” he says.

However, he also stresses it worsens Ukraine’s position in Pokrovsk, where Andrii is currently stationed, where Russia increased the frequency of FPV drone attacks against civilians and military, pushing Ukrainian forces out of the forest strips.

Norman, also of the 109th Territorial Defense Brigade, believes the decision to further prioritize the Kursk operation depends on how much resources are spent on securing Ukraine’s position there.

“If there is potential to build on success and advance further, then it should be done,” he says. If not, it’s crucial to establish a gray zone there or demand serious concessions from the enemy in exchange for their territory.”

He also stresses that the effectiveness of holding Kursk depends on the extent of Ukraine’s control, making it a top priority if Ukraine could secure the entire region rather than just a small part of it.

“If the situation remains as it is now, it would be more important to reinforce fortifications along the Sumy border and prepare everything to ensure the enemy cannot advance — even if Ukraine eventually withdraws from Kursk Oblast,” Norman adds.

“Russia won’t stop there”

Unlike Norman, Viktor from the State Border Guard Service warns that losing Ukraine’s shrinking position in Kursk can severely weaken defenses in neighboring Sumy Oblast, where he’s deployed.

“If we fail to hold them back in Kursk Oblast, they won’t stop there — they will advance into Sumy Oblast. This would bring them closer to Kyiv, prolong negotiations, and further embolden their attempts to seize more of our territory,” Viktor says

He claims this could give Russia an opening to expand its occupation, especially in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where it has dug in since day one of the full-scale invasion.

Likewise, infantryman Dmytro (“Klim”) believes Russia isn’t willing to give up its positions willingly, making Kyiv’s leverage in potential peace talks hinge entirely on battlefield success, making him convinced Ukraine should be pushing for significantly larger territorial gains.

“Holding Kursk is important, but it would be even better if we had more equipment and weapons — even outdated or decommissioned ones — as long as they are available in the necessary quantity for victory,” Dmytro notes.

Solo, a British soldier in the International Legion, said they are holding strong and have even regained ground on the Kharkiv front, bolstered by Ukraine’s Kursk operation.

“It has been very successful in demoralizing Russian forces and depleting their armor and manpower. In many ways, it has been a great success, stretching Russian forces to their limits and once again proving that Russia has underestimated the Ukrainian army,” Solo says.

However, with setbacks in Kursk and growing pressure elsewhere, he calls the operation “a huge waste of Ukrainian manpower,” insisting Kyiv should prioritize driving Russians out first.

Regardless of the outcome, Solo insists the Kursk incursion has undeniably already left a lasting mark on the war’s trajectory.

“This war has exposed many weaknesses in Russia’s ability to operate on the ground. Yes, they have more men and bigger weapons, but it has clearly shown that they don’t know how to use them effectively,” he says.