Belarus’s economy is stalling amid Russian stagnation. In the first half of 2025, Belarus’s economic growth sharply slowed, and its GDP increased by only 2.1%. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service reports that inflation rose to 7.3%.

Agricultural shock and export failure to Russia

The slowdown is described as a “shock situation in agriculture”, with an annual decline of 8.1%, and reduced demand for Belarusian goods in Russia, which remains its key trading partner. Russia accounts for 60% of Belarus’s total trade turnover.

“Deliveries of consumer goods, equipment, and lumber to Russia have fallen by more than 70%,” the intelligence agency notes.

At the same time, exports decreased by 0.3%, imports rose by 4.7%, and the foreign trade deficit for the first four months of the year reached $856 million.

Minsk is sinking into Russian stagflation

Industrial output grew by only 0.3%, mainly due to domestic demand. Russia’s economy is sliding into crisis (–4 % year-on-year in Q1), limiting its ability to support Belarus. This is happening amid Western sanctions and spending all of the available funding on its war against Ukraine. 

“The worsening balance of payments increases the risk of a rapid devaluation of the Belarusian ruble,” the Ukrainian intelligence warns.

It could, in turn, threaten social stability and household purchasing power

Western sanctions have removed Belarus from alternative markets, pushing it deeper into Russia’s financial and logistical orbit.

According to Ukrainian intelligence forecasts, Belarus’s economy will remain at a minimal growth level through the end of 2025, and in 2026–2027 may enter a new phase of crisis, marked by “declining household incomes and increased Russian economic control.”

Earlier, a poll showed 14% of Slovaks openly want to join Russia, and another 18% consider this possibility. The least support for the ideas of “neutrality” and “Russian integration” is observed among people with higher education, urban residents, and citizens with above-average incomes.