Germany's foreign intelligence service warned on 13 October that Russia represents an immediate and escalating threat to Europe, with the potential to ignite armed war with NATO.
Martin Jaeger, chief of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) who took his post last month, told lawmakers that the current state between Russia and the European Union constituted an "icy peace" that could "erupt at any moment into heated confrontation."
According to Die Zeit, Jaeger stated that "Russia will not shy away from direct military confrontation with NATO if necessary" as it pursues its goal of expanding influence westward into Europe.
Jaeger, who previously served as German ambassador in Kyiv, emphasized that Germany remains Russia's primary target on the continent.
"Germany is Russia's number one target in Europe, given that it is the largest EU country and plays a leading role in supporting Ukraine," he said.
The threat is present, not distant
The intelligence chief rejected earlier assessments suggesting Russian aggression would not materialize until 2029 or later.
"We must not sit back and assume that a possible Russian attack would come in 2029 at the earliest. We are already under fire today," Jaeger said, according to reports.
He characterized Russian pressure as relentless. The adversary knows "neither rest nor periods of calm," Jaeger said. "In Europe, in the best case, there exists an icy peace, which at any moment can erupt into a hot confrontation. We must prepare for further escalation of the situation," he continued.
The methods of Russian aggression
Jaeger detailed the tools Russia employs against Germany, the EU, and Western allies: "The means Moscow uses are well-known – attempted manipulation of elections and public opinion, propaganda, provocations, disinformation, espionage, sabotage, airspace violations by drones and fighter jets, contract killings, persecution of opposition figures living abroad."
According to the intelligence chief, Russian operations are becoming increasingly difficult to attribute. His agency has observed a marked uptick in attempts by foreign powers to "influence German domestic politics and government decision-making," though Russian spies operate in ways that "make it very difficult to trace and attribute."
Sinan Selen, president of Germany's domestic intelligence service (BfV), characterized recent drone incidents as evidence of Russia's potential "hybrid threat" to Germany and its European allies.
"Russia is aggressively pursuing its political ambitions against Germany, the EU, and its Western allies. Russian conduct is increasingly escalatory," Selen said, according to reports.
Selen explained that Russian intelligence services continuously adjust their approach. "Russian services continuously adjust the levels of escalation of their activities with the strategic aim of weakening liberal democracies. As a result, we detect a wide range of espionage, disinformation, interference, sabotage, and cyberattacks conducted by foreign actors and states in Germany," he stated.
Recent incidents underscore broader pattern
The warnings follow a series of Russian provocations in recent weeks. Russian drones have violated Polish airspace, Russian fighter jets have entered Estonian airspace, and Germany suspects Russia of conducting drone incursions over German territory, including incidents that disrupted flight operations at Munich airport. German authorities also suspect Russian involvement in sabotage and disinformation campaigns targeting the country.
Calls for enhanced authority
In light of these risks, Jaeger called for an expansion of the Federal Intelligence Service's authority, according to reports.
The public hearing marked an unusual moment of transparency. Intelligence service leaders typically address lawmakers only during strictly confidential oversight committee meetings. However, once annually, testimony occurs in a public session before the full parliament, as reported.