MILAN — Donald Trump’s push for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal to be reached by the end of this week is unrealistic, experts say, as substantive progress is improbable without a major shift on the battlefield.
On July 28, the U.S. president announced that he was shortening the initial 50-day deadline previously granted to Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine to “10 or 12 days from today.”
While the nature of this decision may have been more of a political pressure tactic to get the Russian official to the negotiation table, it implied that the revised deadline for such talks was now Aug. 8.
However, even with the threat of additional sanctions on the horizon and a possible meeting between Trump and Putin, experts share a skeptical outlook regarding any progress being made in the near term.
“The structural realities of this war make meaningful peace talks or even cease-fire nearly impossible in the short-term,” said Eitvydas Bajarunas, the former Lithuanian ambassador to Russia. “Putin’s strategic goals remain unchanged … [and] his ambitions are incompatible with any real compromise.”
Bajarunas added that any movement toward peace by the revised target date would be “performative at best” as concrete developments are dependent on “battlefield shifts, not diplomatic theatre.”
Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, shares a similar pessimistic perspective regarding the likelihood of a ceasefire deal by Friday.
“[The probability] remains very low, as Putin shows no signs of abandoning his core objectives in Ukraine,” she told Defense News. “The Kremlin is dismissive of the threat of new U.S. sanctions and reportedly confident in military victory.”
In May, Ukraine’s foreign minister stated that Russia had violated its three-day ceasefire only hours after it went into effect.
Bloomberg reported this week that Moscow may opt to pause temporarily drone and missile strikes, but continue ground operations.
Such a gesture, Snegovaya said, would primarily serve to ease pressure from potential U.S. sanctions.
The Trump administration has signaled that significant, secondary tariffs could be placed on Russia’s closest trading partners if no concessions are made from Moscow.
The main objective: severely restrict global economic ties with the Kremlin in an attempt to cut off funding for its war machine.
According to Bajarunas, four countries are specifically at risk of being targeted: India, China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
Although Indian goods are already subject to 25% tariffs from the U.S., the expert said that the country could be hit harder if it continues to buy Russian oil.
“[If secondary tariffs are imposed] India is more likely to respond by partially shifting to alternative oil suppliers,” Snegovaya added.
While this would effectively hurt Moscow in the near-term, she warned that ultimately, it could lead it to deepen oil ties with China or increase efforts to bypass sanctions.
As of this month, average American tariffs on Chinese exports stand at nearly 55% on all goods, per the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Ukrainian intelligence officials have maintained over the last few months that Beijing was still providing different products to Russian military plants. Additional sanctions on Chinese merchandise could be “framed as both economic leverage and national security protection,” Bajarunas added.
However, for Snegovaya, the existing tariffs on China reduce the likelihood or impact of imposing additional.
Concerning Turkey and the UAE, countries he noted “as intermediaries in Russia’s sanctions evasion networks,” Washington may opt to target key infrastructure or institutions such as ports, shipping companies or banks.
Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.