
Trump’s 2-week deadline for Russia to start peace talks comes and goes
The two-week deadline that President Donald Trump gave Russian President Vladimir Putin to make a peace deal with Ukraine ended Thursday.
By Carla Babb
By striking eight targets across Russia, Ukraine could badly damage Russia’s war machine, according to some U.S. experts.
A mixture of drone and missile attacks — as well as limited ground offensives into Russian-controlled territory — could enable the Ukrainians to break the current stalemate and affect the course of the Russia-Ukraine war, argues an August report by the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
The Hudson target list details “eight high-value and militarily plausible targets that Ukraine should pursue to weaken Russia’s warfighting ability and increase the political cost of invading and occupying Ukrainian territory,” wrote Hudson researchers Luke Coffey and Can Kasapoğlu.
“While a single strike against any one of these targets would not by itself constitute a decisive blow, cumulatively, a sustained attack against several of them could significantly damage Russia’s military infrastructure and complicate its continued aggression,” the report argues.
The Volga-Don Canal, a 63-mile waterway connecting the Caspian and Black Seas, enables Russia to sail ships into the Black Sea, and Iran to ship weapons to Russia. Damaging the canal’s 13 locks would be difficult: Though Russian air defenses in the area are weak, Ukrainian drones and missiles would still need powerful warheads and pinpoint accuracy. However, “a successful strike would deal a major geopolitical blow to Russia as well as to the Islamic Republic,” Coffey and Kasapoğlu argue.
“Movement of military and commercial vessels between the Caspian and Black Sea would also slow and halt, causing economic disruption,” according to the report.
A joint Russo-Iranian drone factory in the Russian republic of Tatarstan manufactures most of the Iranian-designed Shahed drones that have pummeled Ukrainian cities. While Ukraine probably can’t destroy such an enormous facility through bombardment, it can target the factory’s Achilles-heel, its electrical supply.
“The factory draws electricity primarily from the Tatarstan power grid, most likely sourced from the Nizhnekamsk Thermal Power Plant — a major generator in the region,” the Hudson report noted. “Any disruption to this regional energy network could impact factory operations.”
Border crossing points between Russia and China convey Chinese electronics and other goods that sustain Russia’s military and economy. In particular, 60% of cross-border rail traffic passes through the Manzhouli–Zabaykalsk and Suifenhe–Pogranichny chokepoints. While Coffey and Kasapoğlu are careful not to advocate a Ukrainian attack on China, “there are several vulnerable and critical transit chokepoints within a 100-mile radius on the Russian side of each crossing.”
The Hudson report identified four bridges that connect Russian-occupied Crimea with Russia. In addition to the Kerch Bridge — which Ukrainian attacks have periodically damaged — the Chonhar, Syvash and Henichesk bridges are also vital to Russian logistics.
“The West should prioritize arming Ukraine with the weapons it needs to destroy, or at least incapacitate, the Kerch Bridge,” the report said. “The German Taurus missile, with its smart fuse technology and destructive warhead, remains the ideal weapon for this operation.”
Rail bridges in Russia’s Western Military District, which abuts Ukraine, were also flagged in the report. Much more than Western nations, Russia depends on rail transport to move troops and supplies. While previous attacks on trains and rail yards have achieved only limited success, destroying railway bridges, transformers and traction substations offers more promise.
“In the aftermath of such strikes, cascading bottlenecks would likely emerge across the broader rail network, creating secondary targets of opportunity for follow-on attacks,” the report noted.
The Russian naval base at Ochamchire in Abkhazia, a Russian-occupied region of Georgia, is another key target identified by Coffey and Kasapoğlu. After Ukrainian drone strikes drove the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol and other Crimean ports, Russia began building a naval base at Ochamchire. The site has yet to be fortified and it is within drone range of Ukraine, so attacks could disrupt construction and “mark a significant victory for Ukraine, demonstrating its expanding strategic reach against high-value Russian targets.”
Russia’s Pacific Fleet bases were also included in the report’s target list. With Vladivostok 6,000 miles from Kyiv, hitting Pacific bases wouldn’t be easy. Coffey and Kasapoğlu suggest that Ukraine could use containerized drones launched from covert cargo ships.
“Such an ambitious attack could yield significant geopolitical dividends, even if not entirely successful,” the report said. “It would compel Russia to reassess its force protection posture across its entire naval fleet, including for assets located thousands of miles from Ukraine.
Transnistria, a Russian-supported breakaway region of Moldova, now hosts an estimated 1,500 Russian troops (Russia may bring in another 10,000 troops, the Moldovan government recently warned). Located to the southwest of Ukraine, Transnistria is surrounded by Ukrainian and Moldovan territory, and thus isolated from Russian armies in eastern Ukraine.
“Ukraine would gain leverage in escalation dominance over the Kremlin by seizing Russian-held territory in Transnistria,” Coffey and Kasapoğlu said. “In particular, such an operation would lessen the pressure on the key Ukrainian port city of Odessa.”
Of these options, attacking Transnistria is probably the most challenging. With Ukraine’s army under pressure in the east from relentless Russian attacks, mustering sufficient forces to attack west against Transnistria may be difficult.