The Trump administration is drawing attention to an often overlooked data point that suggests Trump’s policies, and the passage of the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” have laid the foundation for an economic boom.
Treasury Department counselor Joe Lavorgna says that Federal Reserve data tracking the production of business equipment shows positive signs for future economic growth. Those signs come as President Donald Trump appears to be growing in popularity among business owners.
Economists view the figure that Lavorgna points to as a proxy for capital expenditure (CapEx), which encompasses most investments made by businesses in hard assets that are expected to increase production later on. Those investments could be new buildings or updated equipment, such as better computer software.
“What we observed in the first quarter is that equipment production rose at a 23% rate. Now, surprisingly, when we got the GDP data, we saw a 24% increase. Really, really strong, really exciting news,” Lavorgna told The Daily Wire.
Lavorgna contributed the surge in equipment production to the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” that passed Congress and was signed into law on July 4, though it authorized companies to expense business investments retroactively back to Inauguration Day.
“So, companies – getting very excited about the pro-growth policies that President Trump was putting forward – took that initiative in the first quarter, [and] increased production of business equipment,” the Trump administration economist said.
“Importantly though, in Q2 we saw another large gain in business equipment production, up almost 11%. That is a really strong increase following a boom in the first quarter,” he continued. “What that means is before the One Big Beautiful Bill became legislation, we had an almost 17% annualized increase over those two quarters of business equipment production.”
“That is remarkable,” said Lavorgna.
In the first half of 2025, CapEx surged 16.6%, according to Treasury Department data. That leap constitutes the largest two-quarter rally in CaPex, excluding the pandemic years, since 1997.
“The One Big Beautiful Bill jumpstarted investment that’s lifting productivity, wages, and living standards. Blue collar paychecks are rising fast — second only to @realDonaldTrump’s first term — and the best is yet to come,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted in a post on X.
Thanks to @POTUS’s pro-growth, America First agenda, we’re seeing a CapEx Comeback. Business equipment production jumped 11% annualized in Q2 after a huge 23% gain in Q1 — the strongest back-to-back growth since 1997.
CapEx is up 16.6% in the first half of 2025, signaling a… pic.twitter.com/CcYf7QR9ov
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) July 22, 2025
Recent polling numbers suggest that business owners are rallying behind Trump’s handling of the economy after showing pessimistic attitudes earlier this year. On Tuesday, the latest results from the quarterly CNBC-SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey results showed 46% of small business owners rate the U.S. economy as “excellent” or “good” – a leap of 16 percentage points since the Q2 survey results showed that number at 30%.