Democrat Jay Jones’ texting scandal is threatening to sink Democrats’ chances in the gubernatorial race for the commonwealth of Virginia, according to pollster Brent Buchanan.
Buchanan, founder and president of the polling firm Cygnal, said Jones’ August 2022 texts, which wished harm against a state GOP lawmaker, have flipped typical election dynamics to drag down other Democrats on the ballot. The scandal, as well as Democrats’ failure to condemn transgender ideology, has given Republicans an edge in a couple of campaign fundamentals.
“There are some key fundamentals to any political campaign, and that is money, message, and messenger. The message and messenger is on the Republican side, but the money’s on the Democratic side right now,” Buchanan said in an interview with Morning Wire that aired on Monday.
Jones is running to be the state’s next attorney general, and since his texts were made public earlier this month, he has fallen behind Republican incumbent Jason Miyares. But over the same timeframe, the fallout has appeared to spread to other races as well, as former Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s lead over Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race has shrunk.
“Normally, governor’s races drive down-ballot races, and because of the scandal with Democrat Jay Jones and his text messages and the fact that no Democrats are coming out and saying that he should resign, drop out of the race, it’s really flipped the race on its head,” the pollster said.
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“The proof that it’s affecting the governor’s race is that, in September, we had Winsome Earle-Sears down by seven, and now have her only down by four-and-a-half,” said Buchanan. “I know that doesn’t sound huge, but when you consider how much money has been spent by the Democrats, and little in comparison by Sears, it’s essentially proof that the [attorney general] race is driving the governor’s race now.”
Spanberger may have much more to lose before the election, scheduled to take place on November 4.
“What’s fascinating is, we polled right after Labor Day,” Buchanan said, “one of the things we found in the survey is that there’s a huge swath of voters in Virginia who still have not heard about these text messages.”
In addition to the text messages, Spanberger may also suffer from her messaging around transgenderism. In a Virginia governor’s race debate last week, Spanberger evaded weighing in on debates over school bathroom and locker room policies regarding students who identify as transgender. Spanberger repeatedly said it was an issue to be taken up locally.
“The transgender issue is popping its head back up,” said Buchanan. “The culture wars are what won Donald Trump the 2024 election, and I think we’re seeing that play itself out again in 2025 as if Democrats just can’t learn the lesson.”
“Republicans are firing on all cylinders right now, making sure that this is the one issue being spoken about in paid advertising. The challenge is that Democrats still have a very large spending advantage,” he added.